When an international court ruled in late October that it had jurisdiction to hear a case filed by the Philippines against China over the disputed South China Sea, Beijing dismissed the decision, saying it would "lead to nothing". Philippine officials as well as some foreign diplomats and experts disagree, saying China could come under intensified diplomatic and legal pressure if the Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague ultimately decides in favour of Manila.
Legal experts say Manila has a significant chance of success, citing the court's detailed rejection of China's arguments in the hearing on jurisdiction. A final ruling is expected in mid-2016. Such a judgment would likely be a millstone around China's neck, especially at regional meetings, because it would mark the first time an international court has intervened in the dispute, making it harder for Beijing to ignore, the diplomats and experts said.
One expert said if the ruling went against China on key points he would expect to see coordinated positions from Western nations that would keep the pressure on Beijing in bilateral meetings and at international forums. "Other countries will use it as a stick to beat Beijing with. That's why China is so freaked by this whole issue," said Ian Storey, a South China Sea expert at Singapore's Institute of South East Asian Studies.
Manila is seeking a ruling on its right to exploit South China Sea waters in its 200-nautical mile exclusive economic zone (EEZ) as allowed under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). China, which claims virtually all the South China Sea, has refused to take part and rejects the court's authority in the case, even though it has ratified UNCLOS. The Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan also claim parts of the waterway. Any ruling against China would be legally binding but unenforceable beyond political pressure because there is no body to enforce such rulings, legal experts say. The Permanent Court of Arbitration declined to comment. China's Foreign Ministry on Tuesday reiterated that Beijing would not accept any decision imposed on China. On Nov. 24, it said the case was a "futile attempt to deny China of its territorial sovereignty in the South China Sea".
