Despite a negative macroeconomic picture last year and a consequent sectorial stagnation, Turkey's automotive sector will continue to be the country's export champion in 2017, a recent analysis by Deloitte, one of the world's largest professional services companies, has revealed.
The report analyzed Turkish automotive industry performance in the first half of 2017. The survey revealed that exports increased by 28.5 percent compared to the same period of last year as sales hit 714,000 automobiles. Meanwhile, the total export value also increased by 22.1 percent, hitting $14.5 billion.
It estimated that export income from the automotive sector this year would be around $26.5 billion.
On the other hand, automobile sales in the Turkish automotive market in the first six months of 2017 decreased by 9.6 percent compared to the same period of 2016, declining to 306,000 automobiles. The sales of light commercial vehicles dropped by 5 percent in the first half of 2017 compared to the same period of 2016, falling to 95,000 vehicles. As far as the heavy commercial vehicle market goes, sales in the first six months of the year tumbled by 22.4 percent compared to the same period of last year, reaching 9,500 vehicles.
Deloitte Turkey's Consumption and Industrial Products Industry Leader Özkan Yıldırım said that the shrinkage trend in the market will continue in the second half of 2017, adding that the total Turkish automotive market has shrunk by 8.96 percent in the first half of the year compared to the same period of the previous year.
Stressing that they anticipate that the sector will experience a year-on-year shrinkage of 8 percent to 10 percent, Yıldırım stated that the size of the shrinkage will be determined by exchange and interest rates.
"While there is a possibility that exchange rates that are beginning to move on a limited band may be positively perceived by the consumers, there will be the impact of new models being introduced to the market and consumers moving towards lower-end entry packages on companies' market shares," he added.
The Deloitte survey did not ignore the impact of the short-term economic recession on the automotive sector and highlighted that rapid transition and dynamism in the automotive sector will dominate the future over the long run. It is not too far to switch to vehicles such as autonomous, electric, internet-connected and shared ones that will shape the future of the sector. The initiatives by technology companies and the investments of big automobile giants will be an indicator of a rapid change in the automotive world.
Deloitte indicated that the future of mobility is sliding toward a unique point with a brand-new ecosystem model and different forms of work. The previous mobility shift began in the 1890s when motor vehicles appeared on the roads. The sector is quickly approaching a similar fracture point by entering an era in which the time and money spent in city traffic is being optimized by consumers in various ways thanks to autonomous vehicles and smart phones and in which automotive giants are beginning to see themselves as mobility service providers. Deloitte is evaluating the future of the automotive industry in a four-stage scenario analysis that will coexist at the same time, starting from today.
According to the Deloitte analysis, the evolution of the world of mobility toward the world of "shared autonomous vehicles" is considered to be a change that will take place earlier than expected and even a near-future change. A fast transformation and dynamism in the automotive industry may be on the cards in the future, considering that vehicle sales will decline by nearly 40 percent and oil consumption will decrease by nearly 30 percent in developed countries by 2040 and only 25 percent of vehicles to be sold will be in the traditional form as we understand today.