Borsa Istanbul: 2015 ended with a loss, the first time of two years of successive losses. While Borsa Istanbul is relatively cheap compared to markets of other developing countries, the expectation that interest rates might fall to single digits is extremely appealing. With the foreign investments, the index is expected to test the 90,000 level.
Dollar: The dollar closed 2015 with a 25 percent increase, and in 2016, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and Turkish central bank's steps will determine dollar-TL parity, which is expected to be between TL 2.75 and TL 3.15. With economic reforms from Ankara and a decrease in geopolitical risks, the TL might become attractive again.
EURO: The economic recovery and asset purchases in Europe will determine the euro-TL parity. For a significant increase in the euro, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi's statements need to change. For 2016, the euro-TL parity is expected to be around TL 3.10 to TL 3.30.
Gold: For the first time in history, gold prices decreased three times in a row and a significant increase is not expected this year. The price per ounce might fall below $1,000 and if it preserves its current level, then the price per ounce could be around $1,070 to $1,200.
Interest rates: The central bank's steps for monetary policy simplification will determine interest rates and, while inflation and the pressure of foreign exchange rates are considered negative factors, with a positive investment environment in the second half of the year, interest rates could fall below 10 percent.
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