From 2010 to 2030, $10 trillion in national income will flow from the world's seven biggest economies - the U.S., Japan, Germany, the U.K., France, Canada and Italy (G7) - to the world's newly rising seven, China, India, South Korea, Mexico, Russia, and Turkey (E7). In the period of 2018-2020, the size of the national income of the E7 will surpass that of the G7. This issue has been heatedly discussed over the last 10 years, and the G7 is not happy with this inevitable role change. This is the reason behind the interventions of different strengths and pressure being imposed over the entire E7 in similar methods and sometimes on the bordering regions of each E7 country. Since the attack on the Council of State in 2006, a systematic, brutal and mischievous operation has been carried out at our borders, aimed at Turkey, which has been entitled to become part of the E7 since 2003 with the revolutionary economic and democratic reforms it has implemented.
Instead of following a more "embracing" policy as not let Turkey slip through their fingers, the Western alliance is trying to intimidate Turkey, in an abdication of reason at the conjuncture of Eurasia's increasing weight on the world's political economy with Turkey as its gravitational center and the Asia-Pacific rising. Turkey should strengthen its hand in terms of its domestic means, national technology, energy and defense capabilities for this gradually hardening "Geo-Economic War." The most important trivets in this war are price stability, effectively fighting inflation and financial stability; thus, decreasing the current budget deficit and reinforcing domestic savings. However, I do not believe that the battle against inflation and the current deficit has been taken seriously enough over the past decade. We need new reforms and new approaches to eliminate weak sport and fragile nerve endings.
China's Belt and Road initiative concerns more than 60 countries, 40 million square kilometers and 4.5 billion people. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's statement that he believes that this win-win project will serve peace and stability in Eurasia, while the geo-economic war intensifies, is a critically important assessment. The fact that our president has pointed out that a rise in living standards for 4.5 billion people with sustainable growth and development will be the joint success of all countries provides the necessary evidence of how Turkey's political leadership is determined to fight. Our mega projects led by Erdoğan and his team will be our greatest assets in this war.
target of 1 billion
President Erdoğan's critically important visits to Beijing and Washington revealed the positions of leading actors in the global political economy and important clues on strategies and cooperation processes. To emphasize our evaluations of the geo-economic war, it is not limited to the G7 losing $10 trillion worth of value added to the E7 by 2030. It might worry the G7 that $10 trillion worth of products and services will be produced by China, India, Brazil, South Korea, Russia, Mexico and Turkey and will then be sold to an additional population of 1 billion from Southeast Asia to Africa. The $10 trillion of production that will be lost by the Atlantic Alliance, led by the U.S. and the leading economies of the EU over the next 15 years, is 25 percent of their total national income. This is not limited to the fact that $10 trillion less cash will enter their safes. It concurrently means that the ratio of the total debt stock of the G7 to their national income will surpass 400 percent. Thus, a debt burden of over 400 percent of GDP means a de facto bankruptcy of the G7.
In that case, the geo-economic war is not only limited to losing $10 trillion worth of production and the group of 1 billion consumers that will be "newly added," but is also directly linked to G7 countries being dragged or not dragged into bankruptcy with the debt whirlpool of their economies. This is why we have to realize once again how important President Erdoğan's call for irrevocable change is and how it will be induced on the global political economy by the critical role that key players in the Belt and Road initiative, including Turkey, will assume to alter the future of 4.5 billion people in Eurasia and Africa. The EU bureaucracy, which is having a hard time grasping this process, England's "Brexit" move to save the EU project from Brussels' drift into a black hole and the fact that the U.S., the U.K. and Germany will face critical conflicts of interest should all be analyzed carefully. Turkey should be and will be an ambitious actor in the geo-economic war by clinching its critical "bridge" role between Asia and Africa with its intellectual, scientific and physical means.
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