The question of how and when the European Central Bank (ECB) will adopt a new monetary expansion is quite important these days inasmuch as whether it will be new and different from the Fed's model. The euro expansion of ECB should uplift the technology-dense sectors in Europe and generate a new economy leaning toward the export of technology-dense products. However, the EU's household and public debt problem and the fact that they cripple the banking system stand as the biggest problem. State debt has been increasingly reduced in Germany, the most significant cause of which is decreasing interests. The reduction in interests of government securities in the last three years saved 40 billion euros in favor of Germany's budget.
German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeble stated that the German economy will grow by 1.7 percent in 2014 and public debt will be zero in 2015. However, individual debt of the German people is on the rise. Seven million people in Germany currently have high levels of debt, which cannot be met by their income of 38,000 euros per capita.
On the other hand, the German economy aims to bring in a new, technology-dense industrial revolution defined as Industry 4.0, which focuses on customizable production rather than mass production. However, it should be discussed further whether the banking system has a structure and understanding that can finance such economic attempts. This is the very problem of the ECB:
Will the new expansion rescue the bankrupt banking system and household debts of Europe or enable the leap of Industry 4.0 as it's about to crawl? Actually, the answer is obvious in the current economic and political environment of Europe. Whatever the ECB's monetary model is, if Germany does not pave the way for a common fiscal policy and then the EU's political unity, the monetary model will have no meaning at all. Monetary expansion will serve only to defer household debt to the banking system and swell the liabilities side of the balance sheet of European banks, which are already in dire straits. One thing is certain: The euro size originating from the expansion and pacifying of the balance sheets of banks will in no way be evaluated as asset value because Germany does not have a concern like the Eurozone exiting the crisis and transitioning to the information economy.
Germany is jealously trying to develop the new Industry 4.0 robotic production system as a national strategy.
It further aims to be the center of this system and draw away from southern Europe in terms of technological productivity. Thus, Germany will never be confined to the low value of the euro and grow in an export-dense way by bringing its technological productivity to the forefront.
Under these circumstances, Germany will object to a huge and extensive monetary expansion by the ECB but will be content with a limited expansion that will suffice to help reduce household debt in the country.
Today, the actual name for the European crisis is Germany. Unless Germany gives up its national-statist approach over monetary expansion, the crisis in Europe will never come to an end. Furthermore, the crisis will plague Europe as an energy and food crisis very soon.
Europe cannot overcome the crisis and unite without expanding eastwards - starting from Turkey - as market and human capital.
After Russia's annexation of Crimea, Europe's energy vulnerability came to the fore. President of the European Parliament Martin Schulz remarked that if the EU and the U.S. impose sanctions on Russia related to the Crimean crisis, this would adversely affect the daily life of European citizens. First of all, the increase in energy prices will strike the European people. That is why Schulz stated that EU politicians should be open and honest with people. Actually, Schulz should have said this to Germany in particular, as Germany keeps one foot in each camp. Currently, Germany is working on a project which passes through Ukraine and transits across Turkish waters in the Black Sea to reach Europe.
The project aims to restore the Southern Flow. Germany is pushing Russia into a new Southern Flow project covering Turkey using GazProm.
Turkey is aware of Germany's intention; however it may allow the utilization of its soil in the Black Sea in a new South Flow project for its self-interest as the main country of the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC).
The SGC will transfer both Azerbaijani gas and offshore Cypriot gas in the Mediterranean to Europe.
Therefore, Turkey is currently building a huge storage facility in a southern Mediterranean town called Tarsus to store gas from the Mediterranean. This facility of nearly 3 billion euros will have the capacity to store 5.2 billion cubic meters of gas. The International Energy Agency (IEA) made a statement emphasizing Turkey's increasing importance in terms of energy.
Under these circumstances, Europe has two choices.
The first is to convert to the new German Reich which gives up being a union, shrinks in a Germany-centered way and establishes its connections with its east in line with the national interests of Germany. The second option is to develop win-win relations with its eastern partners starting from Turkey as a new democratic union covers Turkey as well. The EU does not have a third option.
Russia's annexation of Crimea has shown this reality to the EU in a concrete way.
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