In order to evaluate the latest events in Mosul, we need to first understand what has been going on in the region of Mosul and Kirkuk. The kidnappings that took place in Mosul at the Turkish Embassy were a direct and clear international assault on Turkey and it is merely a different version of the efforts aimed at overthrowing the Erdoğan government in order to replace it with a technocratic government, but this time it is happening in Iraq.
First of all we need to define ISIL, which is a paramilitary-legionary organization. Similar types of organizations first emerged in Asia Minor, the Caucasus and the Middle East after the fall of the Soviet Union and the U.S.' invasion of Afghanistan as the nations in the region became poorer and "balkanized."
Western intelligence services manipulating religious and nationalistic feelings have been presenting such organizations as the "Frankensteins" of the region. Al-Qaeda for example, is one of these organizations. Again, various organizations that appeared after the fall of the Soviet Union, which exploit the nationalistic feelings of former states in the Soviet Union and mobilizing them against Russian oppression through terrorist acts, are the outcome of the same campaign aided intelligence services.
Many of these organizations are under the control and scrutiny of the intelligence services of Western developed countries including the U.S. and U.K. What these terror organizations have in common is that they were established based on a certain religious sect or ethnicity, are not homogenous but to the contrary dispersed.
Such organizational structures are what advanced intelligence services such as the CIA - which has various means for employing highly-qualified personnel and their own advanced technologies - had intended to create in the region. The workforce of such organizations from al-Qaeda to ISIL and to any similar nationalistic terror organization in the Caucasus is always the young generations that have suffered through poverty, division and witnessed the invasion of the whole region. This is why the paramilitary organization called ISIL has very rapidly and in an organized matter surfaced and spread over a vast geography after the civil war in Syria. ISIL is a political reality as well as an economic and sociological reality in the region.
Without admitting this fact, one cannot understand what has happened and what will keep happening in northern Iraq. We need to look beyond the mere argument that the whole conflict in the region is due to sectarian tensions. It is a war declared for gaining control of energy resources and the energy market. And this war has been triggered and started through exploiting the aforementioned paramilitary organizations. Turkey lies at the center of this war. It is the biggest target. This battle started with the uprisings that took place right around this time last year and continued with the demand of the owners of the monopolistic capital and media outlets to topple the Erdoğan government and replace it with a technocratic government. Then came the peak of the whole campaign, when the Gülen organization attempted a coup on Dec. 17 to overthrow the Erdoğan government by using the judiciary and the media and failed. After that failure, those who planned the Dec. 17 coup only had one chance left, to play the Kurdish card within Turkey and ensure that paramilitary organizations such as ISIL attack Turkey's economic and political bases in Iraq. Yes, the energy centers, oil fields in Mosul and Kirkuk are and have been throughout history, economic centers of Turkey. Turkey's Mosul Embassy is the country's official political base and now ISIL has directly attacked both of these bases. This is an open, clear declaration of war on Turkey. Since Turkey is a member of NATO, NATO should immediately step in.
The Kirkuk-Yumurtalık oil pipeline has a capacity of 1.5 million barrels a day, however the total yield acquired from this pipeline was from 300,000 to 400,000 barrels last year. The main reason for such low output was sabotages and other limitations placed on the pipeline.
Mainly the U.S. and U.K. petrol conglomerates, followed by Saudi Arabian-Russian petrol giants were controlling Iraq's oil supply and did not want anyone else gaining economic benefits from it. The same can also be said for Rouhani and Iran. These countries benefitted from Iran remaining a closed country under the control of mullahs and remaining in a state of war. Lately, the energy resources in the Caspian Region, Iraq, east Mediterranean and Iran were integrated into the world economy through Turkey. The scenario written by the U.K about World War I and by Britain, the U.S and Russia after World War II was therefore ruined. The previous game was played with the Ottoman Empire, which was defeated by the U.K. and the West and the game continued with "old" Turkey, which was controlled by the oligarchy under the reign of the military.
The Great British Empire had two motives for signing the Lausanne Agreement with Turkey. First of all, they wanted to take control of the energy resources located in Northern Iraq, mostly around Mosul and ensure that the straits are managed and controlled by a common organization, to which Turkey is also a member of, not exclusively by Turkey. Britain has achieved both of its goals through the Lausanne Agreement. Unfortunately, these goals had other negative outcomes for Turkey apart from energy resources and passage through the straits.
All that happened in the first quarter of the 20th century, including the Lausanne Agreement and the 1917 Russian Bolshevik Revolution, in the Middle East and around Caspian Sea, damaged the trust in the region, turning it into a politically unstable region. In the second phase, political stability was provided through military dictatorships. In a way, this region was shared between London and Moscow and energy resources located in this vast region spanning from the Caspian Sea, reached European borders through Turkey but never came under economic and political supervision of the actual nations and countries in the region. Moreover, Turkey did not invest in the southern trade route and the Silk Road that linked the Caspian Sea Region, Mesopotamia and Anatolia to Europe was officially closed.
So what has been happening over the last two years? First of all, Turkey has gained access to energy resources it lost in the Lausanne Agreement in Iraq and moreover, it has achieved this through the support and political will of the Kurds. The Kurdish resolution process in Turkey also resulted in new political and economic integration. In other words, the northern part of Iraq was integrating with Turkey in terms of energy resources and its energy market and was prospering and becoming separated from the rest of the country.
Secondly, Turkey was exceeding the limits set by the Lausanne Agreement (and afterwards, the Montreux Convention) for passage through the straits and joining Caucasus, North Africa and the Middle East with the New Silk Road; Europe through Anatolia and the Mediterranean. Further, the Southern Gas Corridor also joined this new commercial union, resulting in not only the borders of the Middle East but Europe changing.
This is the reason behind what has been happening over the last year in Turkey and the reason behind ISIL's attack. The names who have organized the Dec. 17 coup, who are behind the Gülen Movement and anyone who has plotted against the Erdoğan Government and those behind ISIL are all the same.
So how should Turkey act? This is a once in a life time opportunity for Turkey. Turkey will not act as it did back in 1923, but will protect and claim both its own rights and the rights of all the nations in the region.