The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to take a step that will intensify the negative interest rate policy in the eurozone during tomorrow's monetary policy meeting. The bank is expected to reduce interest rates by an additional 10 points - which will cause interest rates to drop to -0.24 in the eurozone. As is known, the anticipation is that the reserves of the banking system will return to the markets, instead of central banks, as credit flow, and invigorate the economy. Another assumption regarding the negative interest rate policy is that asset prices will increase and the euro, which becomes more competitive, will support exports. All this is assumption, and it is hard to suggest whether or not they will come true. ECB President Mario Draghi has held a total of 47 monetary policy meetings since he took office and nearly 10 of these meetings resulted with Draghi and his team taking radical stimulus measures that would push up inflation in Europe. Last week's inflation data is not promising and it no longer points to a risk of recession, as Europe is already facing recession. I think the ECB will not achieve its objective this time either, although it has switched from desperate "expansion" policies to a negative interest rate policy.
The European Commission (EC) emphasized that its main objective was rapid, inclusive and sustainable growth in its "Trade, Growth and World Affairs Report" in 2010. The report, which also placed emphasis on the essentiality of protecting the welfare state, foresaw the current crisis and suggested that new and multilateral free trade agreements must be brought up. The report, albeit rather implicitly, underlined that previous World Trade Organization (WTO) regulations highlighted the West's interests alone and ignored developing countries. It also put forward the need for a new trade cycle that observes the interests of developing countries regarding intellectual property rights, competition policy, new investment areas and customs practices. Although the EU and the West complained about protectionism on all occasions, they did not remove obstacles to trade. They are now paying the penalty for this delay and colonial mercantilist approach. This understanding stipulates that two countries, which are engaged in trade with each other, cannot win equally and simultaneously, as there is an absolute winner and an absolute loser in mutual trade. Such an approach gave rise to the current world where some people are starving to death, while others enjoy luxury and abundance. We now see that this understanding, or more precisely this paradigm, has come to an end.
The ECB will fail to overcome the crisis under these circumstances no matter what it does. This is because it tries the policies and solutions of the previous capital accumulation period. In other words, it asserts that it is a union; however, it makes regulations through national economies and ignores mutual dynamism and integration in global markets. Moreover, it thinks that it will handle the situation only if things are on track in national markets in the eurozone. Today, three basic and large markets - Europe, Asia and America - have to run in an integrated way and Africa will be a part of this chain in the very near future. Capital exports from Asian countries, with China taking the lead, to Africa is mobilizing a very different dynamic from the one that the West did in previous centuries.
The last section of the third bridge over the Bosporus was installed on the weekend, bringing together Europe and Asia for the third time. This project is very different from the other two Bosporus bridges, as it will integrate high-speed train lines through the Marmaray. The Halkalı-Kapıkule high-speed train line, Marmaray, the third airport and the third bridge are actually part of the same project.
There emerged a market where labor, goods, capital, knowledge and technology freely circulated in a wide area that spanned from Xi'an, the old capital of China, and the Atlantic Ocean between the eighth and 15th centuries AD. With the impact of Islamic civilization as well, the greatest integration in the history of humanity occurred in this region. This "old" Silk Road functioned as a route of civilization in a sense. Turkey's territory, which was the center of this civilization route at that time, is the center of a way out of the crisis and a new development path due to the New Silk Road.
Today, there are three major routes connecting Asia Pacific to the European market. They are critical commercial transits that complement each other and provide economic integration between Asia and Europe. They are predominantly railway lines, as railway transportation, particularly high-speed railway lines, are more advantageous than other alternatives in terms of speed, price and security. The three major corridors that connect developing Asia, particularly China, to Europe are as follows: The Northern Corridor: It passes through the Russian mainland along the Trans-Siberian line and reaches Europe passing through Kazakhstan and Belarus, both of which Russia has been in a customs union with since 2010. After the Crimean crisis, the Northern Corridor contains significant political disadvantages for the West. The Middle Corridor: This route reaches Europe passing though China, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, the Caspian Sea (by ferry), Azerbaijan and Turkey. The Southern Corridor: It starts from Kazakhstan and passes through the Turkmenistan-Iran-Turkey line. When we look at these lines, which will constitute the new Silk Road and connect Asia and Europe, we see that the middle and southern corridors are inevitably important for Europe and the U.S. for the actualization of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP).
This being the case, the Middle Corridor is the most important alternative to the New Silk Road. This is why Turkey attaches great importance to Georgia, Azerbaijan and the Kars-Tbilisi-Baku railway, which will be one of the most important routes of the Middle Corridor and the construction of which will be completed soon. As can be seen, regardless of which line of the New Silk Road comes to the fore, Turkey is the key country. So, instability in Turkey will return as a crisis and calamity for the whole of the world. In other words, the New Silk Road, as well as the middle and southern corridors, are the only alternatives that will carry new and non-Russian energy resources to Europe. In this regard, the New Silk Road and the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) are sisters and Turkey is the key country. The lines of the New Silk Road are the only alternatives, which will resolve the EU's crisis. They are also the only alternative for the EU's expansion and world peace.