Turkey has emerged from a tough election. Although it has been more than a month we still do not have a government. In accordance with the Constitution, coalition talks will begin after the Bureau of the Assembly is formed, which is to take place next week. The statements made by parties reveal that a coalition between the Republican People's Party (CHP) and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) seems to be a very slight possibility now. This is because MHP Chairman Devlet Bahçeli has announced that he will not take part in such a coalition, arguing that it would survive only with the contribution of the Peoples' Democratic Party (MHP). Thus, all coalition possibilities that exclude the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) have collapsed for the opposition parties, which talked about overthrowing the AK Party throughout their election campaigns. The AK Party has always come to power alone since the first elections it entered, and coalition scenarios shake the AK Party most. Both the CHP and MHP organizations and supporters are familiar with a coalition past. Moreover, the parties' despair that they will not be able to come to power in other ways makes them more open to coalition. However, a coalition itself, regardless of with which party, is a test for the AK Party on its own.
Although media outlets such as the pro-CHP Doğan Media's Hürriyet newspaper, capital circles such as the Turkish Industrialists and Businessmen Association (TÜSİAD) and some international think tanks and media organizations argue that an AK Party-CHP coalition will be good for Turkey. This scenario includes a lot of trouble. For instance, as a party that called on its voters to go to the ballot box with the slogan: "Cast your vote, let them go," that was aimed at the AK Party, the CHP will have difficulty explaining such a coalition to its base. However, it will be more difficult for the AK Party to explain this coalition to its base, considering that the CHP has always striven to practice the opposite of whatever political thesis the AK Party argued. In such a case, beyond any doubt, AK Party organizations will wobble and perhaps there will be mass resignations.
Likewise, some of the reasons why AK Party supporters votes for the party is that it is the opposite of the CHP, it distinguishes itself from the CHP's 90-year historical context and they regard the AK Party as the inheritor of the "right" and democratic line. This being the case, it is obvious that in the elections that will follow a possible coalition government, votes for the AK Party will melt away at unpredictable levels. The dissolution of the profile of a party, which has votes and deputies from all regions of the country, might start an irreversible process. Moreover, it is difficult to predict what kind of consequences this cooperation will have, considering that the two parties have completely opposite positions on foreign policy, particularly on Syria, Iraq and Egypt. According to the information leaked to the press, if the CHP really wants to have the Foreign Ministry as an absolute condition of forming a coalition, it would not be wrong to suggest that a coalition possibility will be less likely.
A similar picture goes for the alternative of an AK Party-MHP coalition. In this case, it is likely that a crisis will break out regarding the reconciliation process, rather than foreign policy. Just as the CHP directs its most severe opposition toward foreign policy, the MHP's opposition focuses on the domestic issue of the reconciliation process. It appears that the MHP has increased its share of votes in the recent elections by adopting a discourse of a "betrayal process" from the very beginning. This raises the impression that this is the only issue on which the MHP will not compromise in any coalition scenario.
If the AK Party forms such a coalition to remain in power, it should prepare itself for the possibility that its voting rate will drop below 10 percent in the eastern and southeastern Anatolian regions that are predominantly populated by Kurds. The major reason why the AK Party receives votes from every region in Turkey is that the polices it pursues are different from those of the CHP and MHP.
