When the news that Iran and the world powers had reached a deal on limiting Iranian nuclear activity in return for the lifting of international economic sanctions, there was general euphoria that this would make the world, and especially the Middle East, a safer place to live in. We did not comment immediately and wanted to see the real picture once the dust settled down. Both President Barack Obama and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani see the deal as historic and will bring some normalcy to international relations, and yet some extensive analysis shows there is still too many unknowns and potential traps that can make this deal counter productive, rather than a blessing for the Middle East and world peace.
International business circles are celebrating the deal as they can now enter the hungry Iranian market and make big money. They see that the lifting of the international sanctions can now pave the way for Iran getting the cash for major investments, while the restored flow of Iranian oil to the world markets will help the fall of oil prices. All this will also help Turkey's economy. Turkey is a natural trade partner to Iran and has the capacity and the means to undertake major projects and investments in Iran. During the time of the sanctions Turkey helped Iran in many ways. It turned a blind eye for Iranian money to slip into Turkey and thus help Iran purchase some vital goods to keep its economy afloat much to the distaste of the Americans. In fact it was Turkey that brought the major powers and Iran together in Istanbul to start the negotiations process that resulted in the current deal.
Now Turkish companies will no doubt flood into Iran, Turkish goods will find new export markets there and the fall in energy prices will no doubt help the Turkish economy in these hard times when Turkish exports gains are falling and the world is shuddering with expectations of an increase of the interest rates in the United States to be announced by the Fed by the end of the year. Despite all the positive expectations, however, we also have to look at the other side of the coin. Obama is elated but there are still some in the American congress who are preparing to put up a fight on the lifting of the sanctions against Iran. It seems Israel has not been consulted over a deal, which is very strange. Israel and its allies in the U.S. are up in arms saying this is not a deal and Israel insists Iran will use all the added funds with the lifting of the sanctions to make the Middle East a more dangerous place, rather than a safer place.
Saudi Arabia also thinks on the same lines as Israel but from another perspective. Added cash they feel will further embolden Iran, which has been knee deep in the expanding conflicts in Iran, Syria and now in Yemen... They see the sectarian conflict between Shiite and the Sunnis deepen which is also a cause for concern for Turkey. The growing threat of the so-called Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS or DAESH) is further complicating the picture in the Middle East not only for Iran and Syria but also for Iran, Turkey and Saudi Arabia.
It is time Turkey, Iran and Saudi Arabia sat together and discussed all these issues in earnest before conflicts in the Middle East turn into an unmanageable situation.
