German Chancellor Angela Merkel went home winning Turkey's approval to keep Syrians fleeing the Assad regime from European borders and in return pledged to step up efforts to lift the obstacles preventing Turkey's full EU membership and provide support to Ankara to house the migrants.
Of course it all sounds very positive and convincing, yet the EU's track record of reneging on agreements with Turkey and their failure to provide promised funds for political gestures all have to be taken into account.
The EU simply says Turkey should house as many Syrians as possible and pledges to provide at least 3 billion euros to cover the costs.
The situation reached crisis proportions last month as more and more Syrians decided to flee to north European countries instead of Turkey. Now we hear that with the Russians bombing Aleppo from the air and the Iranians shelling the same city by land to ease the opposition pressure on the failing Assad forces, there is a growing danger that at least another 1 million Syrians will flee their country and make their way to Turkey. That means if they are unchecked they will try to flood into EU countries, which would be a nightmare for Europeans. The Americans, with a lame duck president, are just watching on the sidelines as the tragedy in Syria unfolds.
Turkey's pleas to the international community to end the Assad regime or to create a safe haven inside Syria for the people fleeing Assad's brutality have fallen on deaf ears. Thus the only alternative that is being forced upon Turkey is to receive as many Syrians as possible.
Merkel has acknowledged that the EU has to share the burden. That is good and it seems there will be a serious effort to do this "burden sharing" without any delay as the EU has learned that its traditional tactics of dragging its feet will only result in these refugees finding their way to EU borders.
However, it is clear that because Turkey is facing an impossible situation with the Syrians, Ankara has decided to put the pressure on the EU at this opportune moment to extract concessions from the EU. Turkey wants the visa restrictions on Turks entering the EU to be abolished. Merkel has said they will take steps to have the visa restrictions lifted in 2016 and we are told the agreement will go into force, along with Turkey signing the agreement to receive illegal immigrants who tried to sneak into the EU, Turkey wants new chapters opened in the accession talks. The chapters include Chapter 17 that deals with critical economic and financial bonds and Chapters 23 and 24 that deal with justice and human rights and freedoms. Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu sounded as if the opening of these chapters were a foregone conclusion while Merkel was more guarded saying "yes" to Chapter 17 and hinting "we will see what happens to the other chapters."
All this shows that the EU may have some reservations but knows it cannot afford to antagonize Turkey at this stage. Yet, it seems those opposing Turkey's full membership may still be active and stall the process. That is why we still have the "but" in our minds.
