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Demirtaş's election calculations

by Nagehan Alçı

Mar 10, 2015 - 12:00 am GMT+3
by Nagehan Alçı Mar 10, 2015 12:00 am
The negotiations that took place on Feb. 28 at Dolmabahçe Prime Ministry Office between Deputy Prime Minister Yalçın Akdoğan and the Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) delegation left a brand new and significant mark on history. In my previous column, I wrote about Abdullah Öcalan's call to gather a disarmament congress and the 10 articles he proposed. This week, I would like to review the relation between the reconciliation process and this announcement by considering the statements of certain politicians.

Öcalan's call for laying down arms indicates that serious progress has been accomplished in the process, and that permanent peace is quite close. So why did HDP Co-Chair Selahattin Demirtaş and other leading figures in the party issue statements signifying that "agreement cannot be made unless the Domestic Security Bill is withdrawn," or "do not consider the announcements, we will not surrender?" Why does the HDP seem to have adopted a negative attitude toward the process while conveying the determined call of Öcalan regarding the resolution?

When looked at superficially, one might think that the process cannot proceed with such statements and that it is endangered. But this is not the case. The HDP is doing politics via a certain calculation on the eve of the upcoming general election.

As you know, the HDP will participate in this election as a party, which means a claim exceeding the 10 percent election threshold. Turkish left-wingers who cannot find what they are looking for in the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), a part of secularists who are not nationalists, and some liberals who used to support the Justice and Development Party (AK Party), but then turned into harsh opponents with their obsession with Erdoğan, support Demirtaş. They regard Demirtaş as a promising opposition figure who can stand against the AK Party. Demirtaş gives them a green light by considering the results of the presidential election.

Their plan is to increase the HDP's votes by receiving the support of the groups I mentioned above, and they are attempting to achieve this by following an anti-AK Party line. Demirtaş thinks their grassroots would not give up supporting them even though they appear to be blocking the reconciliation process. Besides, they are trying to attract some people from the CHP as well as any undecided voters. CHP Chairman Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, seemingly understood this strategy. In a TV appearance on CNN Turk last Wednesday, he uttered harsh remarks about the HDP and hinted at the aligning of the HDP with the AK Party, which is a great change in discourse for him.

However, Demirtaş has one more option. Things would be completely different if he presented himself and his party as a positive opposition and provoked the AK Party by suggesting more liberal policies, targeting the Kurds voting for the AK Party instead of reacting to every word of the AK Party and Erdoğan, or issuing statements that contradict the spirit of the reconciliation process. But this is a hard path to follow, since it means competing directly with the AK Party and Erdoğan rather than Kılıçdaroğlu and CHP policies. And apparently, Demirtaş finds it harder to compete with an influential leader like Erdoğan and a strong party like the AK Party. For this reason, both the HDP and CHP continue to target only a small group of voters, which is actually quite sad for Turkey's democracy.

The positive side of the whole picture is that the reconciliation process operates smoothly at a state level. It has already reached a supra-political position. While analyzing the process, the cacophony that will continue until the election should not be allowed to confuse minds.
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