Shockwaves were felt across Europe as the Spanish electorate rejected all parties, resulting in a fragmented legislature. The current Popular Party-run government received far fewer seats in parliament than necessary to continue governing. This leaves Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy in trouble. He cannot govern alone nor are there any likely suitors for his party. The only potential for a coalition lies with the centrist Ciudadanos party, but together they are still 14 votes shy of the 176 votes necessary to govern. As political uncertainty immediately translates into economic uncertainty - the euro fell against the dollar, off by nearly 1 percent in late Monday afternoon trading. Look for continued pressure on the euro in the absence of European Central Bank (ECB) reassurances.
The news out of Spain is one of a failed ECB as Spanish youth unemployment is more than 50 percent. Overall unemployment is a staggering 20 percent. This is nearly twice the unemployment rate of Turkey. With an electorate so disenfranchised with their government's policies, the younger generation voted en masse in opposition to the Popular Party. Unfortunately, support for the socialist's party was not great enough to put them over the top either, leading to gridlock and most likely early elections in 2016.
The last thing Europe needs now is renewed political uncertainty on the Iberian Peninsula. Portugal has been rumored to be teetering on the edge of default for several years now with Portuguese credit-default swaps (CDS) trading even higher than Turkey's at times. This means investments in Portugal have been very expensive to insure. To put this into perspective, the ECB and the eurozone stand firmly behind Portugal and have implied guarantees to bail Lisbon out when necessary. Despite this guarantee, CDSs have continued to trade higher. The ECB will need to do more to pull the Iberian countries out of the Great Recession, one which both are apparently still fighting.
Azerbaijan is the biggest story of the week. The domestic currency, the manat, was already devalued earlier in the year by 33 percent and now has been left to free-float. The pegged nature of the manat to the dollar and later to a euro-dollar currency basket led to incredible pressure on the Central Bank of Azerbaijan. The drop in oil prices, now at an 11-year low, only exacerbated the situation, forcing the hand of the government in Baku. On the heels of the devaluation in Kazakhstan, the devaluing of the manat will continue to hurt the former Soviet republics and will force them to tighten national budgets. With high government employment as a percentage of general employment, the citizens of these countries will instantaneously feel the pinch at the supermarket as their salaries have effectively been halved. Imported goods will have doubled in price while domestic production of goods will be twice as costly to manufacture as production input will be more expensive. This may lead to pressure on the governments of these countries for solutions to the economic woes of their people. Extravagant spending on government projects have already been halted for several years now, however, continued pressure on crude oil prices will test the strength of governments in this region.
Russia will also continue to suffer in this new normal of cheap energy. With restrictions on exporting energy newly lifted in the United States, cheap American oil from shale fracking will soon flood global markets. This will translate into a perfect storm of a slowdown in global demand, low export revenues and continued political uncertainty in many petro states.
The recent U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) hike of the federal funds rate was, as expected, the most dovish hike in the history of the Fed. Notes accompanying the hike point to a very gradual increase in rates in 2016. I predict no more than one more rate hike in the next year as the Fed does not want to appear to be interfering with the U.S. presidential elections slated for November of next year. Such a "gradual" pace has meant a rally in Turkish equities and the Turkish lira. The lira is up more than 10 percent from its lows against the dollar, while the benchmark BIST 100 equity index of the Borsa Istanbul is up nearly 6 percent. With an apparent resolution of the Syrian crisis closer than ever before, look for a continued fall in energy prices to push Turkish investments higher. As the world enters the second chapter in the post-Great Recession period, countries diversified away from natural resource exports, including Turkey, will most benefit from cheaper energy costs.
