Russia's incursion into Turkish airspace over the weekend sent a strong message that Moscow will not bow to Western pressure over its strategic prerogatives in Syria; however, escalation that would lead to a Russian-Turkish confrontation is very improbable and both sides are likely to show restraint now, says the leading global political risk research and consulting firm Eurasia Group.
According to the Eurasia Group report, Russia, Turkey, and NATO are all well aware of the grave consequences that a lethal clash would entail and even a limited direct conflict with Russia would open up the possibility of a potentially catastrophic escalation. However, the report showed that the Russian Ministry of Defense said in a statement on Oct. 5 that it is talking to Turkish authorities to avoid further incidents, indicating a desire – for now – to reduce tensions. Stating that Russian President Vladimir Putin is surely aware that his Syria campaign is not popular at home, the report supports his claim with a Sept. 28 poll by the independent Levada Institute that found only 15 percent of Russians support direct military action in Syria, while 69 percent oppose it.From the Turkish perspective, the Eurasia Group predicts that Ankara will likely avoid a confrontation with Moscow. Reminding that economically, the stakes are too high for both Turkey and Russia to jeopardize their growing commercial and energy ties, the report further predicts that the Turkish public's skepticism about further involvement in Syria also means that President Erdoğan and the AK Party would have little to gain in the elections by escalating tensions with Russia.
