Nouriel Roubini, the economist who earned the nickname "Dr.Doom" for predicting the collapse of the U.S. housing market and global recession in 2008, has predicted that Turkey will not face crisis after an interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve.
In an article published on Project Syndicate on Monday, Roubini wrote that Turkey and most of the other countries with emerging markets, are less likely to experience crisis as they have faced during the 2013 financial crisis.
Roubini explained that most emerging markets, such as Turkey, are financially stronger today than they were back in 2013, when financial fragilities led to currency, banking, and sovereign-debt crises.
"Most now have flexible exchange rates and a relatively smaller share of dollar debt relative to local-currency debt than they did a decade ago, which will limit the increase in their debt burden when the currency depreciates as the markets' financial systems are typically stronger as well, with more capital and liquidity than when they experienced banking crises." Roubini wrote.
According to Roubini, when the Fed begins raising rates, "some will suffer more than others; but, with a few exceptions lacking systemic importance, widespread distress and crises need not occur."
Additionally, the Fed's possible rate hike this year will not catch markets by surprise like 2013 as the Fed is likely to start raising rates later and more slowly than in previous cycles, responding gradually to signs that the U.S. economic growth is robust enough to sustain higher borrowing costs.