Brazil, Russia, Turkey and South Africa will be the most affected countries from the potential interest rate hike of the U.S. Federal Reserve's (Fed), according to U.S.-based credit rating agency Moody's. Moody said that the Fed's decision might pose risks for developing countries, including Turkey. In a written statement about the decision which the Fed is likely to make during its two-day meeting, Moody's said a potential hike in short-term interest rates will confirm that the U.S.'s economic growth is on track; however, higher interest rates might pose risks to developing countries. The statement also said the direct impact of the interest rate increase will remain at the minimum level. As international markets have focused on the Fed meeting which is expected to unveil an interest rate hike, stocks in emerging markets have gained value for the first time in the past 10 days and the dollar has declined. As investors expect an interest rate hike, which will be the first one in 10 years, gold has gained value and the price of Brent oil has dropped. Moody's Senior Vice President Steven Hess said the Fed is likely to increase short-term interest rates in Wednesday's meeting. "Such a move will support our idea that the U.S. economy continues to grow above the normal level."
Pointing to that the Fed's decision to launch an interest rate hike will remove a major uncertainty for emerging markets, the statement argued that some developing countries will be adversely affected by capital outflows and the change in investors' confidence.
Moody's has named Brazil, Russia, Turkey and South Africa - where domestic problems have increased exchange rates and instability in financial markets - as the developing countries which will be most affected by the potential interest rate hike, saying that these countries have limited policies to maintain growth and avoid external shocks.
