While the world was busy watching the failed Gülenist coup attempt on July 15 in Turkey, another important story was developing in the region, and it has started to attract more attention by transforming an ordinary event into a social crisis.The armed conflict and seizure of a Patrol Guard Service Regiment station by the Sasna Dzrerthat (Daredevils of Sasuun) group occurred on the morning of July 17 in Yerevan, and is now transforming mass protests across the country. During the action, the group killed one officer and wounded four others. During the first week of the hostage situation, all hostages were gradually set free by the group on condition, however, the armed group has not ended their action, and called on the country to start demonstrations against the government.The group announced that they will not surrender until their demands are accepted, which are the resignation of President Serzh Sargsyan and the release of Jirair Sefilian from prison, a famous Armenian veteran of the Karabakh conflict and the leader of a oppositional movement called Founding Parliament. Sefilian was arrested on June 20 on charges of illegal acquisition and possession of weapons. Later the government announced that Sefilian and his supporters were planning to seize government buildings and the television transmission tower.It is the fourth mass protest to take place in Yerevan. In 2013, demonstrators were protesting against price hikes for public transportation, and they were on the streets for pension reform in 2014. Last year's Electric Yerevan protests against higher electricity bills took place all around Armenia.When the hostage situation is evaluated with the above-mentioned chain of protests over the last four years, it becomes clear that this is far more than an ordinary law and order story. Speaking to Daily Sabah, Eurasian analyst and journalist Eşref Yalınkılıçlı said that it has exposed the face of complicated internal problems slighted by the government since long years. Saying that Armenia does not have a sustainable political and economic system at all, he said: "The country is overwhelmingly dependent on Russian aids, who have strong political influence over Armenia. About 1 million people immigrated to other countries, mostly to Russia, because of bad living conditions after the country gained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991. Compared to the government's oppression toward the opposition, this economic stalemate came into the fore as a trigger of major unrests among the public. Moreover, the government has no transparency, which makes them vulnerable against corruption allegations."Yalınkılıçlı said that all of the political arguments in Armenia are circling around two main political rhetoric, Nagorno-Karabakh and the Armenian genocide claims. "These political issues evoke continuation of the isolation process of the country, as two out of its four international borders closed. The country has long been trying to take a breath through to the Iranian and Georgian border, but today we are witnessing that it is not possible to keep sustainability long as you continue conflict with Turkey and Azerbaijan. And another important issue for the country is the shifting of power and balance between Armenia and their main rival, Azerbaijan, in favor of the latter, thanks to the country's rich oil and gas reserves. I know that there is a homogenous political atmosphere inside the country, which means, there are a considerable amount of people, especially younger generations, who want a major shift in the country's foreign policy, including its traditional approach to Turkey."However, not all experts are hopeful for the future of Armenian-Turkish relations. Analysts from the Center for Eurasian Studies (AVİM) think that if a demonstration leads to a change in Armenia's administration, or if Sefilian's companions overthrow the government in a coup as Sargsyan fears, the future bilateral relations will be more bleak. "Sefilian's movement mostly consists of ultra-nationalist veterans who fought against Azerbaijan during the war and have uncompromising political views on Nagorno-Karabakh. Their opinion on Turkey wouldn't be any different," Mehmet Oğuzhan Tulun, Eurasia analyst at AVİM, told Daily Sabah.He asserted that heavy losses in the clashes between April 2 and April 5 in Nagorno-Karabakh with Azerbaijan caused serious shock in the Armenian public, which also creates outrage against a traditional ally of the country, Russia, as it begins to develop very close ties with Azerbaijan and becomes its main arms supplier. "Armenians started to think that Sargsyan is planning to make serious concessions to Azerbaijan for the proposal in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. It caused anger among the public. They also feel betrayed because of political rapprochement between Azerbaijan and Russia. It made it easy for people to cling to Sefilian's nationalist movement," he concluded.

On the other hand, Tal Buenos, a PhD candidate in Political Science at the University of Utah, drew attention to the effect of two foreign powers, the U.S and Russia, over Armenian politics. He said that the source of Armenia's governing struggles involves its existence as a pawn that is played by great powers according to their interests. "Russia has immediate military, economic, and cultural influences on the former Soviet territory, whereas the United States has since the 1960s led an indirect campaign through the genocide discourse that has inspired nationalist fervor among Armenian Americans and thereby facilitated an expanded American ability to shape Armenian identity in the Caucasus." he said.

Buenos also underscored that Armenian-Turkish relations are not much dependent on governments that rule Armenia, and added that even if the Armenian opposition manages to assume state power, it is not likely to eliminate the negative factors that have affected Armenian-Turkish relations for almost two centuries.

"For Sefilian, there is no reason to suppose that the criticism that the Armenian government is facing might involve an alleviation of the contention between Armenia and Turkey. To the contrary, Sefilian, and some of the militants who demand his release, are popular in Armenia due to their combative role in taking over Nagorno-Karabakh, and are strongly opposed to conceding the land. If this opposition to the Armenian government leads to a change in rule, it might actually mean that Armenia would be defined by an increase in militarization and a more entrenched position against its Turkic neighbors. " he concluded.