To what extent are political parties' election promises reliable?

Minimum wage, diesel prices and free electricity offers are all included in the parties' promises in the upcoming general elections. While the AK Party avoided making populist pledges, the opposition parties' promises have been labelled unrealistic and nonfundable



With only a month left before the June 7 general elections, one of the top issues discussed is the content of the election manifestos of the various parties, especially the promises made by the parties. Experts say opposition parties appear not to be restrained by the limitations imposed by the real world in the promises they make to the electorate. From minimum wage to diesel prices, the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) seems more grounded in its approach while the three parties with parliamentary groups, the Republican People's Party (CHP), the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and the Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP), are either after bankrupting the country or know they can't deliver on their promises.According to a fresh survey conducted by MAK consultancy and announced this week, the AK Party will receive 45.1 percent of the votes, the CHP will receive 24.7 percent, the MHP will receive 15.25 percent and the HDP remains under the threshold with 9.15 percent. All of them have announced promises to convince citizens to vote for them that they are the best option to rule.The percentages given above can only count people who declare their opinions. Choosing a party to vote for depends on the freewill of the people and it is hard to calculate choices and the decision-making process of those choices. On the other hand, to what extent economic promises are achievable is more computable, since it concerns numbers.The generous campaign promises made by the CHPAccording to the election manifesto of the CHP, the party's main economic vision is said as ensuring that Turkey is one of the top 20 countries on the human development index within the next 20 years.The CHP's promises are criticized for being too similar with the Tsipras plan. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras had promised to increase the minimum wage to 700 euros before the elections, and the main opposition CHP's leader, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, started his promises with the minimum wage.Minimum wageAccording to the CHP's manifesto, the income tax on the minimum wage will be eliminated, and as a result, it will be TL 1,500 ($560), while the HDP promised to increase it to TL 1,800‎ also making it exempt from tax. The MHP also mentioned the minimum wage in its manifesto and said that the net minimum wage will be increased to the minimum living standard - TL 1,400. People on low wages, whose household income is under the minimum wage, will be determined and TL 100 transportation support will be given to such households in cities along with a rental support of TL 250 per month. On the other hand, the AK Party said that the net minimum wage has been increased by 415 percent to TL 949 and will be increased to over TL 1,000 in the second half of the year.Diesel oil pricesFurther, the price of one liter of diesel oil used by farmers for production will be decreased to TL 1.5 by the CHP. The MHP also said that agricultural support programs will be increased and Special Consumption Tax and Value Added Tax will be applied to diesel oil, fertilizers, pesticides, seeds, feed and seedlings and a liter of diesel oil will be decreased to TL 1.75 in order to support farmers. The HDP also touched on oil prices and said that no taxes will be imposed on diesel oil and fertilizers used by small-scaled farmers; water and electricity will be provided free of charge. Currently, diesel is being subsidized by TL 3.3 to 4.75 per decare, along with many other agricultural subsidy items.The current consumer price of diesel oil is TL 4.03, while refinery output price is around TL 1.50. There are four refineries in Turkey, which are located in Batman, İzmir, İzmit and Kırıkkale, and oil distributers have to store their products by getting from this refineries, which means even if all taxes are excluded it is impossible to sell diesel oil at TL 1.50. Because the distribution costs will not be added, while it is a must, since 81 cities in Turkey demand diesel oil, only four of them have refineries, according to experts. Selman Yılmaz, deputy general manager of the Turkish Petroleum Distribution Company, one of the six biggest distribution companies in Turkey, said that even if all taxes are excluded from the consumer price, it is impossible to ignore distribution and transportation costs. Special Consumption Tax is TL 1.594 and the price will be decreased to TL 2.40 approximately. "We in the petroleum sector are overjoyed when we hear of such plans and exciting transportation technologies and all of our exhastion is forgotten," said Yılmaz.Electricity pricesThe CHP offered free electricity for 230 kw/hour and said that the use of illegal electricity will be prevented without making poverty-stricken citizens suffer, as the minimum electricity consumption will be secured by the public sector and 230 kw/hours of free electricity will be provided for a family of four below the poverty threshold. While the MHP offered to repay 75 percent of the electricity bills to households who are below the poverty line and consume less than 200 kWh of energy in order for low-income citizens to save energy; no loss or illegal energy fees will be required from such citizens. Further, meter reading and similar costs will not be reflected on the electricity bills. VAT will not be applied to electricity used in irrigation and agricultural businesses and cheaper electricity will be provided to farmers by the MHP.On the other hand, the HDP's manifesto said that the electricity bills of small-scale villagers who are also producers will be erased and the progressive income tax tariff will be amended to ensure that less tax is imposed on those earning less and more is imposed on those earning more. The "Fundamental Assurance Package" will ensure 10 cubic meters of water and 180 kw/hour of electricity will be provided for free to every household along with heating support.Subcontracting system will be eliminatedThe CHP leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu said that the subcontracting system must be ended immediately, which is criticized by Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality Mayor Kadir Topbaş. Pointing to the subcontracted laborer, who works in municipalities under the management of the CHP, Topbaş said that the party should eliminate those, before making bigger promises. The HDP also said that the subcontracting system will be gradually eliminated. In the first stage, subcontractors working in the public sector will be tenured.According to the CHP's manifesto, the social security premiums of workers in agricultural industries will be covered by the Treasury until the age of 30. One-wage bonuses will be granted to retired people during religious holidays and outright education scholarships will be provided to all undergraduate students in financial difficulty.The CHP further said that zero-interest loans will be offered to tradesmen equaling to the annual taxes and premiums they pay, plus the support provided by the Small and Medium Industry Development Organization (KOSGEB) will be increased in order to improve conditions in the workplace. Further, tax exemption will also be applied to small businesses and tradesmen-like companies, and their workplace expenses will be deducted from their taxable profits. A "Ministry of Tradesmen" will be established to carry the issues faced on the political agenda.The CHP's manifesto notes that a human-based approached will be developed and the aim is to increase the efficiency of production; to push the annual average growth up to 6 percent; the unemployment rate will drop below 5 percent; get inflation below 4 percent and the ratio of domestic savings and investments in GDP to 30 percent and the problem of current account deficit will be eliminated.The CHP's economic promises are criticized as being unrealistic by the government, and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek said that if the ‎CHP can prove one third of the financial resources to realize those projects, he will vote for the CHP.MHP's election campaign promisesAccording to the election bulletin of the MHP, the main economy policies of the party will focus on "relieving policies," which consist of urgent measures to fight with indebtedness, financial difficulties and poverty and the "development policies," which will carry Turkey to the future.The inequality between retirement payments will be eliminated and social security premiums will not be deducted from the retirement pay of tradesmen and artisans. "Retired Support Grant," which will be equivalent to two-month's net minimum wage shall be provided to retired persons each year in March and September.An employment opportunity will be offered to at least one member of families in need and under the "Family Support" grant program, half of the minimum wage, equaling approximately to TL 700 will be provided depending on the poverty level of the family and a social protection program will be implemented.A "Marriage loan" of up to TL 10,000 with a two-year maturity and without any interest shall be offered to those planning on getting married. Scholarships and loans will be provided to secondary and higher education students. Provided that they reach a certain success level, a higher education coupon up to TL 10,000 will be given to all students during their education, which they can pay back within four years interest-free when they are employed.The MHP targets gradual growth starting from 2016 and an increase in GDP to $1.1 trillion and per capita income to $13,300 in 2019. The employment participation rate in the same year will increase by 2.4 percent to 52.9 percent with the support of high growth and reforms; employment rate will increase annually by 2.6 percent reaching 29.1 million and between 2016 and 2019, annually approximately 700,000 employment opportunities will be provided.HDP's election campaign promisesAccording to the HDP's manifesto, economy policies based on solidarity, adopted by the will of the public and cover social needs and protect the ecosystem at the same time. The lowest retirement pay will also be equal to the minimum wage, TL 1,800 and further, an adjustment law will come into force to eliminate any inequalities in wages. Equal and free health services will be provided to all citizens.Tenants without any properties will also receive a rent support of TL 250. Public transport will be free for children and youngsters until the age of 18 as well as the disabled and retired. Growth rates will be reflected on wage increases as "welfare share." Credit card loans will be restructured for the benefit of debtors and credit card interest rates will be decreased.Budget reserved for defense and security expenses will be decreased and be under the control of the public. The Defense Industry Fund will be included in the budget and be subject to inspection; discretionary funds will be eliminated. The tax burden of craftsmen will be decreased, no licenses shall be issued for building shopping malls in city centers, plus zero-interest funding will be provided to SMEs in accordance with the sector planning.Education shall be free of charge as a part of public services and the basic requirements of schools and students will be covered from the budget of the school and no donations whatsoever will be requested from parents.Living spaces including dorms, laundries, libraries, culture centers and sport centers will be available free of charge within university campuses. All scholarships and funding will be provided free of charge to all students and the contributions and education fees applied for secondary education will be canceled.What does the AK Party has to offer?The AK Party was selected by Turkish citizens as the government for three consecutive terms and asked the people to vote for them one more time. The party highlighted their achievements and services during their term in the first half of their election manifesto in contrast to making new promises except in terms of general macroeconomic. Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu stated that they will not follow an election-oriented economy policy and will not make unrealistic promises to increase votes. On the other hand, making new promises would be harder for a party that has been ruling for 13 years, since it may raise the question of "why haven't you done these so far?"According to the manifesto stating macroeconomic targets, the rate of exports meeting imports will be increased to 70 percent and the share of medium and high technology products in total exports to 40 percent.Domestic savings rate is targeted to be increased to 19 percent in the medium-term and by 2023, the unemployment rate will decrease to 5 percent. Further, TL 10 billion in cash will be granted to agriculture and procurement of cheap, quality and safe energy will continue. By the end of 2017, all cities will have natural gas installed in residences.The AK Party's manifesto, which dedicates a wide space to the party's economic objectives, set its growth strategy on five main axes, which will be major political fields in the upcoming period in terms of actualizing this strategy. The five main axes were announced as strengthening macroeconomic stability, developing human capital and activating the labor market, improving the capacity of developing technology and innovation, strengthening physical infrastructure and improving institutional quality.The AK Party's basic economic policy is to continuously keep the inflation at low and one-digit numbers. Driven with this principle, the party maintains its determination to ensure and maintain price stability as the main objective of its monetary policies. The AK Party government says it is paying great attention to the harmony between fiscal and monetary policies and regards fighting inflation as one of the foundations of economic stability. As cited in the manifesto, the monetary policy should also observe financial stability and support the government's growth and employment policies without conflicting with the objective of ensuring price stability. The inflation targeting will continue to be the basic monetary policy regime. Inflation targets will be determined by the government and the central bank for three-year terms. The fluctuating exchange rate policy will continue. It will remain essential that the central bank continues to directly determine monetary policy instruments that it will use to ensure price stability. With the contribution of the central bank, the Financial Stability Committee and the Food Committee will strengthen stability and efficiency in related areas.