Eurozone inflation climbs to 3-year high, testing ECB's resolve
A worker walks at the PCK refinery, a crude oil processing facility supplying gasoline, jet fuel, diesel and fuel oil, Schwedt/Oder, Germany, Aug. 26, 2026. (Reuters Photo)


Eurozone inflation rose to 3.3% August, the highest level seen in three years, as the war in the Middle East kept pressure on energy costs, official data showed Tuesday.

Well above the 2% target set by the European Central Bank (ECB), the figure from the EU's statistical office was up sharply from 2.9% in July and in line with forecasts by analysts for Bloomberg.

"Looking at the main components of euro area inflation, energy is expected to have the highest annual rate in August," Eurostat said, noting that energy prices were up 14.3% in August after rising 10.3% in July.

The U.S. war against Iran and the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key energy trade route, have sent global energy costs soaring.

"Inflation should remain well above target into next year, as higher gas and food prices put additional upward pressure on the index," said Leo Barincou of Oxford Economics.

The ECB is expected to again raise interest rates at its meeting on Sept. 10 to tame the surge in prices, after a first hike in June.

The bank's chief, Christine Lagarde, warned in July that the energy shock from the conflict "could intensify further."

ECB hike expected

"The ECB will hike again next week," said Kamil Kovar at Moody's Analytics, adding that the jury was out on whether the decision would be followed by another increase in December.

"The broad-based increase in energy prices – not just transport fuel, but also gas and now even electricity – is playing in hawks' favor," he said.

Core inflation, which strips out volatile energy and food prices, has remained largely stable in recent months.

In August, it slowed back to 2.4% after accelerating slightly to 2.5% in July.

Food and drinks inflation in August remained at 1.2%, the same level recorded last month.

Eurozone inflation was last above 3.3% in September 2023, when it stood at 4.3%.

At the time, consumer price rises were slowing after reaching a peak of 10.6% in October 2022, driven by surging energy prices caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.