Inflation in the U.K. jumped to 3.3% in March from 3.0% in February, official data showed on Wednesday, driven mainly by a notable rise in energy prices following the start of U.S. and Israel's war with Iran.
Factory gate prices also jumped and by much more than expected, the figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed.
Economists said the increases – driven largely by fuel – were unlikely to push the Bank of England's (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to raise interest rates as soon as next week's meeting, and the key question was whether the jump in energy prices would ignite a broader inflation problem.
"Inflation will probably fall to 2.9% in April as the big hikes in regulated prices drop out of the annual comparison," said Ruth Gregory, deputy chief U.K. economist at Capital Economics.
"But the next eight months will be an uncomfortable ride for the MPC."
Economists polled by Reuters had mostly expected the headline consumer price inflation rate to accelerate to 3.3%, driven by a rise in petrol and other fuel costs in March.
The price of motor fuels jumped by 8.7% on the month, the biggest rise since June 2022, shortly after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the ONS said.
The data showed services price inflation – which the BoE watches closely as a sign of longer-term inflation pressures – rose unexpectedly to 4.5% from 4.3% in February.
But much of that increase was due to a rise in air fares driven by the timing of the Easter holidays.
Core inflation, which excludes more volatile food, energy, alcohol and tobacco prices and is also watched closely by the BoE, weakened to 3.1% from 3.2% in February.
War impact
Before the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran began on Feb. 28, the BoE said Britain's inflation rate – the highest among the G-7 economies for much of the last four years – was likely to be close to its 2% target in April.
But last month, the BoE sharply increased its inflation forecast due to the energy price shock, predicting it would rise toward 3.5% by the middle of 2026.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) last week predicted British inflation would peak at 4% in the coming months.
However, the BoE's interest rate-setters have mostly said it is too soon to know what the rise in headline inflation will mean for underlying price pressures in the economy, given the weak jobs market, which could make it harder for workers to demand higher pay or for businesses to pass on higher costs.
The British central bank is expected to keep borrowing costs on hold on April 30 at the end of its next scheduled Monetary Policy Committee meeting.
Financial markets on Wednesday were betting on one or possibly two quarter-point interest rate rises by the BoE this year. But a Reuters poll of economists showed most expected no change in borrowing costs during 2026.
The ONS figures showed cost inflation reported by manufacturers, some of which will filter through into consumer prices, soared last month.
Producer input price inflation leapt in March alone by 4.4%, the second biggest monthly increase since records began in 1984, behind only the increase in March 2022 due to the energy price shock spurred by the invasion of Ukraine.
Producer prices charged by services firms rose by 3.0% in the first quarter, up from 2.8% in the fourth quarter, the highest reading since the third quarter of 2024.