UK's recession-threatened economy gets respite in July
The City of London financial district can be seen as people walk along the south side of the River Thames, London, Britain, March 19, 2021. (Reuters Photo)


The United Kingdom's recession-threatened economy rebounded in July after a hefty fall the previous month, official data showed Monday.

British gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 0.2% after a drop of 0.6% in June, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said in a statement.

The growth, however, remained less-than-expected, with a fall in power production possibly reflecting the sharp climb in energy tariffs and the construction sector also hit by the leap in inflation.

June's big decline had been attributed partly to an extra public holiday celebrating the Platinum Jubilee of late Queen Elizabeth II following her 70 years on the throne.

Another public holiday is scheduled for next Monday for her funeral.

"The feeble 0.2% bounce back in July was driven by weak GDP in June due in part to the loss of working days from the Jubilee long weekend," noted Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG U.K.

"More concerning, July's GDP remains below the level seen in May, pointing to an overall contraction over the first two months of summer."

In the three months to July, GDP was flat compared with the previous three-month period.

"Anecdotal evidence suggests that there may be some signs of changes in consumer behavior and lower demand in response to increased prices," the ONS said regarding a fall in power generation.

Electricity prices leapt by 54% in the 12 months to July, part of the surge in power costs that last week led to new Prime Minister Liz Truss announcing a cap on domestic energy tariffs.

That announcement has reduced the risk of a severe hit to the economy, albeit at the cost of 100 billion pounds ($116.16 billion) or more to the already stretched public finances.

Last month, the Bank of England (BoE) forecast that Britain would slip into a recession at the end of 2022 and not come out of it until early 2024, due in large part to the hit to living standards from the energy price surge.

The BoE is expected to raise interest rates again on Sept. 22 as it seeks to combat an inflation rate above 10%.

A heat wave in July might also have been a factor behind the fall in power demand, although there were signs that it boosted ice cream manufacturers and visits to amusement parks and golf clubs, the ONS said.

Services output grew by a monthly 0.4% in July but industrial production was down 0.3% and construction dropped by 0.8%, reflecting the jump in prices for materials, part of the broader inflation surge, as well as lost working hours because of the hot weather.

Separate trade figures also showed the impact of soaring prices with the value of imports of fuel hitting an all-time high of 11 billion pounds in July and representing a record 21% of all goods imports.