President Donald Trump's stepped-up immigration and trade policies appear to be rippling through the U.S. economy, creating strains in labor markets and deterring millions of foreign visitors in a downturn that analysts warn could extend well beyond the summer.

Preliminary Census Bureau data analyzed by the Pew Research Center show that more than 1.2 million immigrants disappeared from the U.S. labor force between January and July. That includes people who are in the country illegally as well as legal residents.

Immigrants make up almost 20% of the U.S. workforce and play an outsized role in several industries. Pew data show that 45% of workers in farming, fishing and forestry are immigrants, along with 30% of construction employees and 24% of service workers. In health care, immigrants represent about 43% of home health aides, raising concerns about potential shortages as the population ages.

The loss in immigrant workers comes as the nation is seeing the first decline in the overall immigrant population after the number of people in the U.S. illegally reached an all-time high of 14 million in 2023.

"The influx across the border from what we can tell is essentially stopped, and that's where we were getting millions and millions of migrants over the last four years," said Pia Orrenius, a labor economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

"That has had a huge impact on the ability to create jobs," Orrenius noted, stressing that immigrants normally contribute at least 50% of job growth in the U.S.

On the ground, the effect is visible.

Farmers in California's Central Valley and in Texas' McAllen say smaller harvest crews and heightened fear of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) raids have disrupted operations. Some crops, including melons and citrus, were left to rot in fields when laborers stayed away.

"In May, during the peak of our watermelon and cantaloupe season, it delayed it. A lot of crops did go to waste," said Elizabeth Rodriguez, director of farmworker advocacy for the National Farmworker Ministry.

Construction sites in parts of California and Texas have also gone quiet.

An Associated General Contractors of America review found job losses in about half of U.S. metropolitan areas. The largest loss of 7,200 jobs was in the Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, California, area. The Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale area lost 6,200 jobs.

Contractors say they could hire more people if not for tougher immigration enforcement.

Construction sites in and around McAllen also "are completely dead," Rodriguez said.

Unions are raising alarms about the impact on long-term care, where immigrants make up about 43% of home health care aides, according to Pew senior researcher Stephanie Kramer.

The Service Employees International Union (SEIU) represents about 2 million workers in health care, the public sector and property services. An estimated half of long-term care workers who are members of SEIU 2015 in California are immigrants, said Arnulfo De La Cruz, the local's president.

"What's going to happen when millions of Americans can no longer find a home care provider?" De La Cruz asked. "What happens when immigrants aren't in the field to pick our crops? Who's going to staff our hospitals and nursing homes?"

Trump campaigned on a promise to deport millions of immigrants working in the U.S. illegally. He has said he is focusing deportation efforts on "dangerous criminals," but most people detained by ICE have no criminal convictions. At the same time, the number of illegal border crossings has plunged under his policies.

Civil rights advocates and labor groups argue the raids have spread fear well beyond those targeted.

Lots of travelers skip U.S.

The Trump administration's posture is also reverberating internationally.

A decline in foreign visitors has rattled the U.S. tourism industry, which, before the pandemic, was among the world's most lucrative.

Buffalo, N.Y., where Canadian tourists usually provide a reliable summer boost, saw traffic fall sharply despite a marketing campaign offering gift card giveaways.

The campaign was meant to show Buffalo's northern neighbors they were welcome, wanted and missed. At first, it seemed like it might work, said Patrick Kaler, CEO of the local tourism organization Visit Buffalo Niagara. More than 1,000 people entered the giveaway. But by the end of July, it was clear the city's reliable summer wave of Canadian visitors would not arrive this year.

Buffalo's struggle reflects a broader downturn in international tourism to the U.S. that travel analysts warn could persist well into the future. From northern border towns to major hot spots like Las Vegas and Los Angeles, popular travel destinations reported hosting fewer foreign visitors this summer.

"To see the traffic drop off so significantly, especially because of rhetoric that can be changed, is so disheartening," said Kaler.

Experts and some local officials attribute the trend that first emerged in February to Trump's return to the White House. They say his tariffs, immigration crackdown and repeated jabs about the U.S. acquiring Canada and Greenland alienated travelers from other parts of the world.

Nationwide, the number of overseas visitors, a category that doesn't include travelers from Mexico or Canada, fell by more than 3 million in the first seven months of the year, according to preliminary government data.

As a tourist generator, Western Europe was down 2.3%, with visitors from Denmark dropping by 19%, from Germany by 10%, and from France by 6.6%. A similar pattern surfaced in Asia, where the U.S. data showed double-digit decreases in arrivals from Hong Kong, Indonesia and the Philippines. Fewer residents of countries throughout Africa had also traveled to the U.S. as of July.

The World Travel & Tourism Council projected that the U.S. would be the only country among 184 studied where foreign visitor spending would decline in 2025. The finding was "a clear indicator that the global appeal of the U.S. is slipping," the global industry association said.

Since returning to office, Trump has doubled down on some of the hard-line policies that defined his first term, reviving a travel ban targeting mainly African and Middle Eastern countries, tightening rules around visa approvals and ramping up mass immigration raids.

At the same time, the push for tariffs on foreign goods that quickly became a defining feature of his second term gave some citizens elsewhere a sense they were unwanted.

"Perception is reality," said Deborah Friedland, managing director at the financial services firm Eisner Advisory Group.

Travel research firm Tourism Economics, meanwhile, predicted this month that the U.S. would see 8.2% fewer international arrivals in 2025, an improvement from its earlier forecast of a 9.4% decline but well below the numbers of foreign visitors to the country before the COVID-19 pandemic.

Analysts cited rising travel costs, political uncertainty and a perception of hostility to foreigners.

That perception has already led to cancellations.

International competitors began pulling out of the world finals of the International Lindy Hop Championships, saying they felt unwelcome, event co-producer Tena Morales said. About half of the attendees each year come from outside the U.S., primarily from Canada and France, she said.

Contest organizers are considering whether to host the annual competition in another country until Trump's presidency ends, Morales said.

"The climate is still the same and what we're hearing is still the same, that (dancers) don't want to come here," she said.

The nation's capital, where the Trump administration in recent weeks deployed National Guard members and took over management of Union Station, has also noticed an impact.

Local tourism officials have projected a 5.1% dip in international visitors for the year.

"The world's biggest travel and tourism economy is heading in the wrong direction," Julia Simpson, the World Travel & Tourism Council president and CEO, said.

"While other nations are rolling out the welcome mat, the U.S. government is putting up the 'closed' sign."