COP31 could serve as a critical turning point for concrete decisions on climate finance and just transition issues discussed during the recent Bonn Climate Change Conference, according to Professor Alp Erinç Yeldan of Kadir Has University.

Türkiye will host the 31st Conference of the Parties (COP31) to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change, the year’s most significant climate summit, in Antalya in November.

The Bonn Climate Change Conference, seen as a preparatory meeting for COP31, was held in Germany on June 8-18.

Speaking to Anadolu Agency (AA), Yeldan, a faculty member in the Department of Economics at Kadir Has University’s Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences, said climate finance and the transformation of the financial sector emerged as key issues in Bonn and are expected to dominate discussions at COP31.

Yeldan said climate summits have increasingly shifted their focus toward the financial sector in recent years.

"The transformation of industry and energy sectors has long been under discussion. But questions surrounding how the financial sector will fund this transition, the banking system’s responsibilities in tackling climate change, and whether lending to fossil fuel-based activities should continue are only now gaining prominence,” he said.

He noted that while significant progress has been made in the energy transition, particularly in renewable energy, financial sector reforms have not advanced at the same pace.

Expectations rising for climate finance

Yeldan also said climate finance for developing countries was a major topic during the Bonn talks, with expectations growing for the delivery of previously pledged funds.

"Developing countries, especially in Africa, have long demanded concrete implementation of climate finance promises. This will be one of the most important agenda items at COP31 in Antalya," he said.

He stressed that debates on climate finance should go beyond the amount of funding alone, noting that some international institutions and civil society organizations argue that financial support alone cannot compensate for developed countries’ historical emissions.

"Continuing to pollute while attempting to offset the cost through financial mechanisms is not seen as sufficient from a climate justice perspective. Developed countries must also reduce their own emissions in absolute terms,” he said.

Carbon becoming a new financial instrument

Similarly, Yeldan said carbon pricing and emissions trading systems were also among the major issues discussed in Bonn.

He said these mechanisms aim, in theory, to reduce emissions but have faced challenges in practice.

Noting that the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) has nearly 20 years of experience, Yeldan said emission reductions in many sectors under the system remain limited.

"Carbon markets have gradually become not only a tool for emissions reduction but also a new area for financial investment and speculation. Carbon, as a tradable commodity, has become a new instrument within the financial system,” he said.

Yeldan said the effectiveness of carbon markets and emissions trading systems in addressing the climate crisis should be questioned.

"Global greenhouse gas emissions rose from 40 billion tons in 2000 to nearly 55 billion tons in 2024. During the same period, industrial emissions among roughly 11,000 companies under the EU Emissions Trading System fell by only around 5%, while emissions in the aviation sector increased by approximately 25%," he said.

"This shows that climate policies based solely on carbon pricing and financial tools are insufficient."

Bonn outcomes for Türkiye

Yeldan said Türkiye emphasized in Bonn that developed countries should assume greater responsibility in financing and technology transfer while also stressing the importance of fair burden-sharing.

He added that Türkiye will continue efforts to expand renewable energy investments and strengthen emission reduction policies.

"Türkiye’s emissions strategy remains caught between sustaining industrialization, ensuring energy security and pursuing a green transition focused on emission reductions,” he said.

"Considering that today’s industrialized countries are responsible for 92% of cumulative global emissions since the 1850s, imposing absolute emission cuts on developing economies such as Türkiye does not align with the principles of just transition and fairness.”

COP31 may be critical turning point

At the same time, Yeldan said climate action must now move beyond financial debates toward concrete solutions, including renewable energy, low-carbon industrial technologies, carbon capture and storage systems, and stronger carbon sinks.

He said COP31 in Antalya could become a historic summit in this regard.

"The Antalya summit has the potential to become a major turning point in climate negotiations. There is growing awareness among countries and institutions that climate limits are being pushed,” he said.

"I expect COP31 to be a summit where more concrete decisions are made on climate finance, emissions reduction, just transition and the responsibilities of developed countries.”