Türkiye’s external dependence on fossil fuel imports could be significantly reduced in the coming years with a faster transition to clean power sources, with solar particularly seen as a potentially vital component of this shift, a global energy think tank said Tuesday.

Half of Türkiye’s electricity in 2021 was generated from imported coal and gas, a level that could be reduced to less than 25% by 2030 with an accelerated clean energy transition, London-based Ember said in its latest study.

This requires wind and solar to make up more than a third of total power generation, it noted.

Türkiye is still highly dependent on imports to cover its energy needs, which leaves it vulnerable to rising costs that skyrocketed following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

To boost its renewable energy production, it launched large-scale projects and began solar and wind power station tenders.

Last year, the share of natural gas and imported coal power in total electricity generation was 32.7% and 16.7%, respectively. The share of wind and solar stood at 13.6% last year.

Türkiye’s current installed solar capacity stood at about 8.8 gigawatts (GW) as of August this year, a figure that needs to reach 40 gigawatts by 2030, equivalent to the addition of 4 gigawatts per year, the study said.

"Recent deployment rates hover around only 1 GW per year, despite the fact that domestic manufacturing capacity could achieve eight times that every year and solar auctions are attracting applications for capacity 10-15 times larger," Ember said.

Wind power capacity, on the other hand, needs around a threefold rise by 2030, up from 11.1 GW as of August 2022. This will mean around 2.5 GW new wind power capacity added every year by 2030 – significantly higher than recent yearly wind installations of around 1 GW.

The capacity increases could see the share of solar and wind in Türkiye’s electricity generation reach a level between 34% and 38% by 2030 while cutting import dependency by half, Ember said.

The analysis is mindful of Türkiye’s ratification of the Paris Climate Agreement and its net zero emission target for 2053, which requires a new energy plan focusing on increasing clean energy capacity.

To this end, the analysis said that decarbonization will provide the country with more energy independence.

Despite being among the first signatories of the Paris Agreement, Türkiye did not ratify the treaty until last year as it viewed its categorization of a developed country in the annex to the deal as inaccurate. Such categorization required the country to meet certain emissions reduction targets without benefiting from the financial support provided for developing countries.

"The recent developments worldwide have shown how risky it is to be dependent on fossil fuels such as coal and natural gas. The solution to this is cheap and clean energy sources like solar and wind," said Ufuk Alparslan, the regional head for Türkiye, Ukraine and the Western Balkans at Ember.

"Solar and wind will play a leading role in ensuring energy independence for countries with limited energy resources like Türkiye in the coming years," Alparslan noted.