Cost declines in the wind energy sector could almost halve by 2050, according to a recent survey by California-based Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab).
By 2035, Berkeley Lab forecasts cost declines of between 17% and 35%, predicting a 37% drop by 2035.
The results published on the Berkeley Lab website show that technology and commercial advancements are expected to continue to drive down the cost of wind energy.
The survey encompassed data collated by 140 wind experts on three wind applications – onshore (land-based) wind, fixed-bottom offshore wind, and floating offshore wind.
The study revealed insights about the possible magnitude and drivers for cost reductions, anticipated technology trends and grid-system value-enhancement measures.
Under a "best guess" or median scenario, experts anticipate 17%-35% reductions in the Levelized Cost Of Energy (LCOE) by 2035 and 37%-49% reductions by 2050 across the three wind applications studied, relative to 2019 baseline values.
Levelized costs reflect the average cost of energy per unit of electricity output over the lifetime of an electricity plant and are useful for evaluating technology progress.
"There are greater absolute reductions (and more uncertainty) in the levelized cost of energy for offshore wind compared with onshore wind, and a narrowing gap between fixed-bottom and floating offshore wind," the report stated.
Situation in Turkey
Commenting on the recent wind cost reduction research, Ebru Arıcı, head of the Turkish Wind Energy Association (TÜREB) said thanks to LCOE decreases between 2009 and 2020, Turkey’s installed wind capacity reached around 9.8 gigawatts (GW) as of April 26, 2021.
"LCOE levels decreased 71% from 2009 to 2020. It was between $101-169 per megawatt-hours in 2009 and decreased to $26-56 per megawatt-hours last year," she explained.
Turkey has seen significant growth in wind power and has been crowned as the fifth-biggest wind equipment producer in Europe.
Wind power meets around 8.5% of the country’s total electricity generation and is estimated to replace $1 billion (TL 8.29 billion) worth of natural gas imports.