Amid the search for alternative resources to ensure the long-term security of natural gas supply to European countries, which experienced difficulties due to the energy crisis that started with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) comes to the fore with an expert saying there can be different sources to direct to the corridor.

The energy crisis in European Union countries, which have imposed various sanctions on Russia, has deepened further with the decommissioning of the Nord Stream 1 and the not-yet-active Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipelines, which provide natural gas flow to Europe from Russia.

Increasing the capacity of the SGC, which was built to deliver gas resources in the Caspian Sea to European markets, is among the most likely alternatives for European countries that accelerate their imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in order to meet their natural gas needs as soon as possible.

The Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP) that transports Azerbaijani gas to Türkiye and from there to Europe and which forms the "backbone" of the SGC currently carries 16 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas annually, 6 bcm to Türkiye and 10 bcm to Europe.

Starting from the Posof district of northern Ardahan province on the Georgia-Türkiye border, TANAP is connected to the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP), which carries gas to European countries on the Greek border, passing through 20 provinces, 67 districts and 600 villages.

It is expected that the capacity of the TANAP will be increased in line with the decision taken, which is designed to reach up to 32 bcm capacity.

Taking into account that Europe purchases approximately 155 bcm of natural gas from Russia annually, the increase in capacity is expected to be a significant substitute. In order to increase the volume of gas to be transported in the SGC, additional reserves and source countries are needed.

Consulting company Methinks senior partner, John Roberts, told Anadolu Agency (AA) that the European Commission should first consider where the gas will be sourced from regarding the capacity increase in the Caspian-European route.

"Doubling the capacity means an extra 10 bcm gas supply," Roberts said, adding that all that is known for now is that Azerbaijan can produce an additional 5 bcm by 2027.

"There is no sign that it can exceed this amount," Roberts said.

Additional pipeline and capacity expansion investments are needed to increase the gas sent to Europe from Azerbaijan, which has 1.3 trillion cubic meters of proven natural gas reserves. Baku also needs to seriously increase its natural gas production.

Turkmenistan and Iraq

Roberts, further pointing out that the SGC basically consists of three sections, said that the first two sections have an annual capacity of 16 bcm and the last section has a capacity of 10 bcm.

Roberts stated that the issue of "doubling the capacity" as pointed out by the EU is perceived as increasing the first part to 32 bcm and the second part to 20 bcm.

However, Roberts stated that the additional capacity depends on how much natural gas is needed.

Stating that there are two possibilities for the supply of natural gas outside of Azerbaijan, Roberts said, "The first and most obvious is Turkmenistan. Because of the abundance of natural gas resources and its proximity to Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan gas can be connected to the system very quickly."

Pointing to northern Iraq as the second possibility, Roberts said: "The important point in both of these elements is that they don't have to be transported all the way to Europe."

"If they can get as far as Türkiye and improve Türkiye’s gas balance, that is, if they can reduce Türkiye’s need for LNG imports, that's enough. Then, Türkiye would imports less energy, and that means good news for the EU since it leaves the possibility of sending more LNG to the bloc."

"Northern Iraq region may start exporting, perhaps 5 bcm, to the south of Türkiye in two or three year," he said.

Türkiye: Gas hub potential

Emphasizing that Türkiye’s geographical location provides a great advantage for it to be a natural gas hub, Roberts said that Türkiye, which is on the transit route of pipelines, has a key importance for the SGC project.

Türkiye and Iraq's work on natural gas has been going on since the mid-1990s. The project aims to bring the natural gas to be produced in Iraq to Türkiye via a pipeline that will be used for domestic consumption and be transmitted to European markets via international natural gas pipelines. However, developments in the region and the political environment in Iraq negatively affect the implementation of the project.

In Iraq, which is one of the largest oil producing countries of OPEC, large amounts of natural gas that comes out with oil have to be burned because a commercial basis cannot be provided. According to the World Bank's 2022 Global Gas Flaring Tracking Report, Iraq burned 18 bcm of gas last year. This amount roughly corresponds to the planned capacity increase of the SGC.

With an annual natural gas consumption of around 60 bcm, Türkiye draws attention to its infrastructure investments as well as its resource and route diversity in order to ensure energy supply security. Currently, Türkiye has a strong infrastructure with a total of seven international natural gas pipelines crossing the country, four LNG facilities, two of which are floating storage and gasification units (FSRU) and two underground natural gas storage facilities.