Carbon intensity has not declined in line with the drop in Turkish electricity generation over the last three years from high hard coal import costs, as natural gas power has ramped up to compensate for the shortfall in hydropower, according to a sectoral report Thursday.

Turkey's electricity generation fell in 2021 for the third successive year, marking an 8% drop between 2018 and 2021, the London-based think tank Ember said in the report.

In 2018, coal generation peaked at 113.2 terawatt-hours (TWh) and was followed by a decrease of 0.3 TWh in 2019.

Coal generation fell by 7.1 TWh in 2020 when five lignite plants were forced to close operations for six months due to their noncompliance with new air pollution limits.

Ember calculated that Turkey saw another drop of 1.7 TWh in coal generation last year due to skyrocketing hard coal prices while also marking a third consecutive annual decline in coal power.

The share of coal in total electricity generation was 37% in 2018 but dropped to 32% in 2021.

"It is unsure whether 2018 would be the year of peak coal in Turkey, as the country still has plans to expand its coal generation," the report said.

The cost of power generation with imported coal exceeded $70 per megawatt-hour (MWh), which superseded the much cheaper cost of generation from wind and solar.

In 1990, Turkey outperformed many countries in Europe in terms of carbon intensity per kilowatt-hour (KWh) of electricity production.

In 2004, Turkey's carbon intensity of power, which stood at 412 grams per KWh, was still better than Germany at 524, the U.K. with 464, Denmark with 542, the Netherlands with 499, Greece with 757, Romania with 481 and Bulgaria with 473.

"However, this has turned upside down over the course of 17 years," Ember said in the report.

The steady increase in non-hydro renewables in Turkey was enough to keep its carbon intensity in electricity production at similar levels.

According to the review, Turkey ended up with a 3% higher carbon intensity in 2021 in comparison to 2004. In the same period, Denmark reduced its carbon intensity by around 60%, Greece and the U.K. managed a reduction of 50%, while Romania and Italy both achieved a 45% decline.

Despite their lack of ambition to phase out coal, even the Netherlands, Germany and Bulgaria were able to decrease their carbon intensity by 32%, 28% and 13%, respectively, in the same period.

Non-hydro renewables

In Turkey, non-hydro renewable generation, including wind, solar, geothermal and bioenergy, doubled since 2017 and overtook hydropower for the first time in 2021.

Wind and solar held the lion's share at 13.6% of total power generation in 2021, up from 11.7% in 2020, while biomass and geothermal hit a 4.9% share last year.

Wind and solar generation set a new record by reaching 44.6 TWh, a 25% rise year-over-year, Ember calculated.

Last year, the decline in hydropower output was compensated by gas power. While the hydro share decreased from 26% in 2020 to 17% in 2021, gas increased from 23% to 33% year-over-year.

Fossil fuels accounted for 65% of the total power generation in 2021.

Despite Turkey's doubling of renewable output in the last 10 years with 58 TWh, this increase was not enough to meet the growing demand.

The country's power demand grew by 95 TWh during the same period when the gap was mostly filled by imported coal.

"Turkey ratified the Paris Agreement in 2021 and set a net zero target. Despite its 2053 carbon neutrality target, which implies coal exit sooner or later, there is no coal phase-out date or commitment not to build new coal in place yet," Ember said in the review.

"The growth in renewables excluding hydro is promising. However, it is still lagging behind the surge in power demand."

Turkey can turn its overreliance on hydro into an advantage by covering its large reservoirs with solar, Ember said in the report.