Hakan Saatçioğlu hopes rooms at his hotels in the Mediterranean hot spot of Antalya will soon be filled with tourists again, after months of hosting displaced survivors of Türkiye’s massive earthquake who have been now transferred elsewhere by the government.
Saatçioğlu, the coordinator of Limak International Hotels & Resorts, is one of many in hospitality expecting to see Türkiye’s economically vital tourism sector recover from the quakes that dragged down bookings and hotel stays.
Dubbed the worst disaster in the country’s modern history, the tremors on Feb. 6 jolted the southeastern region, killing more than 50,000 people, flattening towns and cities and leaving hundreds of thousands homeless.
"The government has kept its promise" and raised hoteliers' hopes, Saatçioğlu said, by moving quake survivors to guesthouses and dormitories, easing fears that hotel rooms would be blocked to tourists as the peak summer season approaches.
Tourism revenue is critical to Türkiye as President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his government focus on reducing the current account deficit – $48.8 billion last year – to tackle high inflation and interest rates.
Tourism in Türkiye, a major Mediterranean holiday destination, is yet to regain momentum and fully rebound following the tremors.
Stays of two nights or more in Istanbul were down 7% compared to 2019, two weeks before the earthquake, but are now down 31%, according to figures compiled by travel data firm ForwardKeys.
A drop in new bookings means less revenue for travel professionals and the economy, said Olivier Ponti, ForwardKeys' vice president for insights.
"After months of excellent performance, when the country was leading the travel recovery in Europe (after the COVID-19 pandemic), international tourism to Türkiye is clearly taking a nosedive," he told Reuters.
Before the quakes, officials had hoped for a strong year on the back of a surge of tourists last year as the pandemic abated. Foreign visitors arriving in Türkiye jumped 80% year-over-year to 44.56 million in 2022. It came in just short of the record 45.06 million people in 2019.
"The year started strong in terms of bookings, but it became sluggish after the quake. Now bookings have recovered a bit but have not reached their previous pace," said Kadir Uğur, chairperson of Germany and Switzerland-based tour operator Bentour Reisen, which specializes in travel to Türkiye.
"People are gripped by fear when you say another big disaster is waiting to happen in Istanbul."
Tourism contributes about 10% to Türkiye’s gross domestic product (GDP), and around 1.7 million people worked in accommodation and food services in 2022 – about 5% of total employment.
Elections
Meanwhile, Türkiye is heading to the presidential and parliamentary elections set for May 14, seen as the most crucial vote in the century-long history of the republic.
Kasım Zoto, head of the Armada Hotel in Istanbul, said he was "on edge" ahead of the elections as the hotel had offered free cancellations up to within 48 hours of check-in and expect that could be used.
Such cancellations could push back a potential recovery.
"Bookings recovered in April but the bookings for May – especially for the first two weeks of May – are low due to upcoming elections," said Ali Kırlı, head of the tourism commission of Marmaris, a popular Aegean seaside destination.
A potential return to expected pre-earthquake travel figures is likely after elections wrap up, tourism officials said, especially as peak summer travel demand to Türkiye ramps up.
Hope in the resorts
Since the epicenter of the quakes was in the southeastern, inland city of Kahramanmaraş, no coastal resorts were affected, a factor that raised hopes for recovery, driven by a surge in Russian tourists.
According to data from the Antalya governorate, foreign arrivals to the popular Mediterranean resort area increased by 54% in March year-over-year, hitting a record high. Russians ranked first, followed by Germans and Britons, the data showed.
Türkiye is one of the few countries that Russians can still fly to after tough Western sanctions were imposed on Russia over its full-scale invasion of Ukraine last year.
On the back of these auspicious March figures, the Turkish government expects to generate $56 billion in tourism revenues this year. Culture and Tourism Minister Mehmet Nuri Ersoy said Ankara remained committed to achieving that pre-earthquake goal despite the fallout.
And hopes remain high that travel-hungry Britons, keen to take advantage of lower prices abroad, will still flock to Türkiye in droves this summer.
"The depreciation of the Turkish lira and inflation in our European markets, especially in Britain, make Türkiye attractive for Europeans," Kırlı said.