President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on Friday said he sees no obstacles in extending the deal allowing Ukrainian Black Sea grain exports after discussions with his Russian and Ukrainian counterparts.
Erdoğan’s remarks come as the 120-day Black Sea Grain Initiative, a United Nations and Türkiye-brokered deal agreed with Moscow and Kyiv, runs out on Nov. 19 and its extension remains uncertain due to Russia’s objections.
The agreement was about creating a protected Black Sea transit corridor to allow the export of Ukrainian grain blocked by Russia’s invasion and was designed to alleviate global food shortages, with Ukraine’s customers including some of the world’s poorest countries.
The July 22 deal also aimed at facilitating exports of Russian food and fertilizers despite Western sanctions imposed on Moscow.
A report by the U.N.’s trade and development agency UNCTAD on Thursday called the extension of the agreement "critical."
"There is no obstacle to extending the export deal. I saw this in the talks I held with (Ukrainian President Volodymyr) Zelenskyy last night and also in the talks I held with (Russian President Vladimir) Putin," Erdoğan told reporters on his plane returning from a trip to Azerbaijan.
"But in the meantime, if there is any blockage, there is no obstacle for us to overcome," he stressed.
The U.N. insisted Thursday that the deal is working and must be renewed before it expires next month, with prices already rising on the uncertainty. The U.N. would like to renew the agreement for one year.
But Russia is unhappy with some aspects of the arrangements and how they work, fueling doubt about whether the Kremlin would want to carry on with the deal.
8M tons exported
The early focus was on moving ships that had been stuck in Ukrainian ports for months, most of which were laden with corn and booked by developed countries.
The bulk of last year’s wheat crop in Ukraine, which is harvested earlier than corn, had already been shipped when Russian troops entered the country in late February.
Erdoğan said around 363 ships had exported more than 8 million metric tons of grains and other foods to world markets under the deal.
He added that 62% of shipments had gone to Europe, 19.5% to Asia, 13% to Africa, and 5.3% to Middle Eastern countries.
Developing countries such as Somalia and Eritrea rely heavily on wheat imports from Russia and Ukraine.
The deal helped push down historically high market prices, but they are rising again amid concerns about whether the initiative will be renewed.
"In a context where trade is very uncertain, signals matter very much," UNCTAD chief Rebeca Grynspan said Thursday. "When there is no clarity, no one knows what is going to happen, and speculation and hoarding take over."
UNCTAD claimed that without the initiative, there was little hope for providing food security, especially in the least-developed countries.
Nearly 20% of the wheat exports have gone to least developed countries (LDCs) with vulnerable populations. The initiative doubled the amount of wheat shipped to LDCs between August and September.
"The U.N.-led initiative has helped to stabilize and subsequently lower global food prices and move precious grain from one of the world’s breadbaskets to the tables of those in need," the UNCTAD report said.
The food price index, published by the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), shows that the prices of global food staples declined by about 8.6% in July, 1.9% in August and 1.1% in September.
Shipments are around 40%-50% below where they were before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Talks make slow progress
Talks on extending and expanding the deal continued this week between senior U.N. officials and Russia. Moscow said the extension was "directly dependent" on the West easing Russia’s own agricultural and fertilizer exports.
Gennady Gatilov, Russia’s ambassador to the U.N. in Geneva, on Thursday said negotiations were not making much progress because Russian concerns were not being taken into proper account.
Russia says Western sanctions are particularly affecting the financial and logistics sectors, thus hamstringing its own exports of grain and fertilizer, even to poor countries that need the supplies.
"I wouldn’t say that much has been achieved as a result of the latest consultations. The dialogue is continuing," Gatilov told reporters.
In discussions with the U.N., Gatilov said they "emphasized our concerns about the implementation of the Russian part of the deal, because we are still experiencing troubles with essential logistics."
"There is no point in continuing an agreement, one part of which may come out as dead on arrival," he noted.
"So, of course, the Russian ... authorities will be very seriously considering the future of the extension of this grain deal."