Misdiagnosis of weak economic symptoms leads to ineffective treatment


The global economic system is standing on the verge of huge paradigm changes. Since the end of the 1990s, the ambitiousness and greed that has fueled the financial system for the sake of globalization has come with imbalances and injustices critical for the world economy. So much so that the increasing disequilibrium between the profitability of the real estate sector and the financial system throughout the world can be defined as one to seven and has brought this serious injustice into question. That is why a new growth model based on human capital and production in accordance with the structuring of new monetary and fiscal policies is on the agendas of all leading countries. This profound inequality has resulted in the "Make America Great Again" campaign slogan of the 45th President-elect Donald Trump in the U.S. When China's 13th, five-year development plan is finalized in 2020, the finalization of the country's economic transformation process will usher in a new period for commodity pricing that will bring a new and upward pricing trend on commodities, primarily petroleum, placing the global economy under the pressure of inflation. This will be followed by a two-year period of market uncertainty during which all leading countries will create new growth models. Thus, central banks should focus on new monetary policies suitable for these new growth models rather than concentrating on the inflation outlook of the next two years. During this period, it is critically important that we do not prioritize the fluctuation in exchange rates while aiming attention at production and at the new growth model. Hence, most of the leading countries do not react to their currency's loss of value.Consensus at OPEC and the oil warSpeaking about global commodity prices and changes to oil production policies in the U.S. for the first time in 44 years, by increasing it from 5 million barrels to 9.5 million barrels since spring 2013, and its shift in strategy to become a net energy exporter has congregated with China's partial economic slowdown during the transformation process to decrease the oil prices to under $40 at one point. All the oil exporting countries; especially Russia and the Gulf countries, have endured a stressful period since mid-2014. Yet, if the U.S. were forced to cut down on oil production and OPEC were refusing to cut production, the U.S. would be triggering a war among shared markets.However, the stabilization of global oil prices at $40-to-$50 per barrel has put a strain on oil-producing countries in terms of export revenues and budget performance. After a two-month marathon discussions and meetings, an agreement was reached on limiting oil supply during OPEC's meeting in Vienna, for the first time since 2008. Information leaked to economy watchdogs in the media shows that the oil-output level ,which is now close to 33.7 million barrels per day (bpd), will be decreased by 1.2 million, shrinking to 32.5 million bpd. Time will tell if this move will bring global oil prices to the $50-to-$60 range. Saudi Arabia's daily production level was at 10.532 million bpd, Iraq's production was at 4.561 million bpd and Iran's' was at 3.69 million bpd. The Obama administration's policies on Iran as well as shifting U.S. policy on foreign oil have brought the U.S. and Saudi Arabia to the most tense position ever seen in international politics. Maps circulated by the American media that show a future division of Saudi Arabia into four different countries and governorates has also further strained relations between the countries. It remains to be seen what progress will be made in the oil war that has been ongoing for nearly 100 years.Important messages from ErdoğanAs Turkey continues to host crucial international summits on various scales at the global and regional levels, the main theme of this year's 7th Bosporus Summit, "Global Future and Global Vision," was the focus of the International Cooperation Platform-collaborated summit. The increasing role of the private sector in increasing growth came to the fore and opportunities for collaboration between Turkey and its first and second-generation neighboring countries were discussed with participants from 70 countries. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan delivered a number of crucial messages at a time when Turkey's rapprochement to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization is being carefully followed.Concerning growth, President Erdoğan pointed out that countries are looking for treatments in the wrong place as they do not have correct diagnoses; he emphasized that the way to sustainable growth goes through people, more precisely by widening people's opportunities to live in peace and wealth, as demand is created neither by robots nor by financial instruments but only by people. Reminding that the winners in trade and war in the next term would be determined by technologic superiority accompanied again by people, Erdoğan highlighted that a healthy global future cannot be built without population growth, a financial system which supports production and investment, and a governing philosophy centered on universal justice for all.