Fed took the 'Trump' step


In the first paragraph of last week's article, we said the Federal Reserve (Fed) might designate a higher than expected increase in interest rates for 2017. The statement following the FOMC meeting finalized on Wednesday confirmed the concerns and expectations of the global markets, and 10 members of the FOMC indicated that they foresee at least three hikes in interest rates. However, market professionals point out that three increments were also envisaged for 2016 after the 2015 FOMC meeting. Nevertheless, the global economic phenomena and the recovery of the U.S. economy gave the Fed only one opportunity to raise interest rates in 2016 and that decision came only after the last FOMC meeting of the year.However, the possibility of a repetition of what happened in 2016 happening in 2017 might be low because, this time, we are talking about U.S. President-elect Donald Trump using public spending to accelerate the recovery of the U.S. economy after the oath-taking ceremony. It's too early to estimate the possible impacts of Trump's fiscal stimuli, but it can be asserted that the Fed is taking "Trump" steps, counting in the potential affect, according to the possibility of a more than expected increase in inflation in the U.S. economy, adding to that at least three interest rate hikes anticipated by FOMC members.In 2016, the Fed put off raising interest rates due to instability in Chinese markets, the shock of Brexit and then the U.S. elections, as FOMC members preferred to stay on standby. According to derivative transactions after the meeting of Dec. 13-14, traders now view the possibility of the Fed raising interest rates before June as two out of three. In the meantime, it should be kept in mind that this meeting is not the only and last determinant of the Fed's policies. The Fed's messages give the impression that they will wait for "Trumponomics." On the other hand, we can also foresee that any economic incident could alter these expectations. The American economy is open to a lot of developments, and this is valid for both monetary and fiscal policies.FOMC members are changingIn the midst of these arguments, let's not forget that the members of the FOMC will change in 2017. Permanent FOMC members are Chair Janet L. Yellen, Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer, the Fed board of governor members Lael Brainard, Jerome H. Powell and Daniel K. Tarullo and New York Fed Governor William C. Dudley. Members of the regional Fed who have voting rights in 2017 are Chicago's governor of the Fed Charles L. Evans, Philadelphia's Patrick Harker, Dallas's Robert S. Kaplan, and Minneapolis's Neel Kashkari.James Bullard, Esther L. George, Loretta J. Mester and Eric Rosengren's terms of office are over. Three of these four names were "hawkish," and only one was a "dove." The incoming quartet: one "hawkish," "one dove" and two neutrals. On the other hand, among permanent members, three are neutral, and three are "doves." Thus, it is useful to know that earlier FOMC decisions were made by a more "hawkish" group; however, the members that will make the decisions in 2017 will not be as "hawkish." Next July is critical in the sense that global markets will know if Trump will continue 2018 onwards with Yellen or not. Until then, markets will wonder greatly about the extent of the White House-Fed harmony. At the press conference after the FOMC decision, Yellen said she was elected by Congress as chairman of the Fed for four years and she is determined to complete this term.The economic activity of two quarters will be enough to see the consequences of Trump's economy policies until June-July 2017. It is believed that these policies will more than likely contribute to the inflation. If the economic indicators are not severely disrupted, Trumpflation's impact on the U.S. dollar might continue to be positive. Nonetheless, the expectation for three interest rate hikes is not a certainty. Yellen's statement at the press conference after the FOMC's decision announcement was softer than the FOMC members' increase of possible rises in interest rates from two to three for 2017. We are aware that there is high unpredictability regarding the Fed's next steps regarding the uncertainties for the global economy and the U.S. economy and the change of the FOMC members. The course toward Trump's fiscal policies - as pointed out by the Fed - is not very clear either. Thus, the minutes of the Dec. 13-14 meeting, which will be published in three weeks, will provide more important clues.