Extraordinary natural disasters are the greatest risk


We are witnessing the most severe humanitarian tragedies of our times in the Middle East, Africa and Asia, where the United Nations has nearly fallen into a state of helplessness as it cannot find any solution in the name of humanity.

Proxy or power wars mostly raged through terrorist organizations in the name of energy, commerce corridors or global competition have also made way for a global refugee problem. Out of some 70 million displaced people worldwide today, approximately 45 million are internally displaced and 25 million are struggling to survive outside the borders of their countries.

U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) Filippo Grandi has said the main points that carry Turkey to an honorable standpoint in this humanitarian tragedy, beyond the fact that it has taken in 3.8 million refugees, are its success in providing refugees from Syria and other countries with decent public services like housing, education, health and employment, and the quality of its hospitality. Grandi said that Turkey's policy of including refugees in social life is innovative and accepted globally as an exemplary model.

Interestingly, however, when you turn to executives and professional managers who steer the world economy and ask what the greatest threats to the global system are, they would promptly point to rising political tension, wars, terrorism and refugee issues. The actors of the global economic system define the primary risk for the global economy as global climate change and the extraordinary natural disasters it causes.

Extreme weather, such as overheating and cooling aside, natural disasters such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides, tsunamis, storms and floods are considered to be the most critical. They are followed by drought on a global scale and the destruction of clean water resources. Another risk factor is nuclear weapons, with threats being exchanged between the U.S. and North Korea, which has terrified the world.

A 93 percent jump in 2017

The heavy economic damage caused by natural disasters linked to global climate change has also created serious cause for concerns. The annual Air, Climate and Natural Disaster Assessment Report by Aon Plc., which provides insurance and re-insurance services in 120 countries, shows that natural disasters have caused an average economic loss of $183 billion between 2000 and 2016, and have become a major issue on the global agenda when economic losses jumped 93 percent in 2017.

A natural event is only counted as a natural disaster when it causes at least $50 million in economic losses, at least $25 million in insurance costs, kills at least 10 and injures 30 people and damage at least 2,000 buildings. The report, based on these criteria, identifies at least 330 natural disasters that took place around the world in 2017.

In addition to the economic losses due to worldwide natural disasters, the rates of these losses being insured have also increased. For instance, Hurricane Harvey in the U.S. and extreme weather conditions caused total losses of about $100 billion. The cost of Hurricanes Maria and Irma in the Caribbean stood at about $120 billion, forest fires in the U.S. caused $13 billion in damage, floods in China and Typhoon Hato totaled about $15.5 billion, the damage done by drought in Southern Europe was stemated at $6.6 billion and the earthquakes in Mexico caused an economic loss of nearly $4.5 billion.

Among all the natural disasters that occurred last year, the damage caused by meteorologic originated disasters reached $344 billion. While this amount was the highest recorded loss in history, only $134 billion of these losses were insured.

In 2017, more than half of the economic losses were due to natural disasters, including hurricanes in North and Central America, fires, earthquakes and floods that cost countries $220 billion. More than 65 percent of this loss was caused by Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria. In the meantime, the economic impact of natural disasters in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, including Turkey, last year was around $25 billion. Only $7 billion of this damage was insured.