Trump's Iran move concerns others in the region


U.S. President Donald J. Trump seems to be in a hurry to keep his campaign promises. He has already started targeting Iran. He declared the country the main sponsor of international terrorism and he included its citizens on his now infamous travel ban. He has also ordered his administration to take the necessary measures to impose hard economic sanctions against Iran.

Iranian authorities have announced they will not allow U.S. citizens to come to Iran in retaliation to the U.S. travel ban. And then, they started testing a number of missile systems.

These weapon tests prove that the tension between the U.S. and Iran will not remain simply diplomatic or economic. Iran suggests that they do not need to trade with the U.S. anyway and thanks to their natural resources, they will be able to resist the renewed sanctions. They also believe they have enough military capacity to protect themselves.

One must not minimize Iran's military capabilities, indeed. It is also true that the country may very well resist the economic sanctions, as it has done for decades. New sanctions mean new difficulties for ordinary Iranians, of course. But not only for the Iranians. In today's interdependent economic realities, any economic difficulty Iran may face will have a negative impact on many other countries.

Besides, if the U.S. wants these sanctions to work, it has to make sure that it is not the only country that imposes them. In other words, the Trump administration will probably ask other countries to impose sanctions on Iran, as well. European countries have recently been developing their commercial ties with Iran, so the U.S. may ask them to reconsider those relations. Trump may say to his European counterparts, "if you are in the Western bloc, if you want NATO to remain as it is, if you want the U.S. to remain your ally, then you have to do exactly what I'm doing with Iran." The United Kingdom will probably not have a problem with that, but one cannot say the same for Germany. So it seems the Trump administration will progressively push Germany to make radical choices.

Trump's attitude toward Iran will help the U.S. and Saudi Arabia become closer. In other words, Donald Trump, through his anti-Iran position, is reinforcing ties between the U.S., the U.K., Israel and Saudi Arabia. Sooner or later, he is going to make his decision on Turkey, as well.

Trump's harsh attitude toward Iran will provide an excuse to Russia to strengthen its ties with its traditional allies. It is obvious that, pushed by the U.S., Iran will seek closer strategic relations with Russia. If Iran gets closer to Russia, maybe the U.S. will start asking for a role in Syria, once again. Moreover, the U.S. may ask Russia to stop advancing in Ukraine.

We, of course, do not know whether or not Putin will accept sharing influence in Syria or Ukraine with the U.S. Maybe he will ask for something more in return, for example in the Caucasus.

It seems that Trump's administration is getting ready to ask Russian President Vladimir Putin not to interfere in Greece, Bulgaria, Serbia and the Eastern Mediterranean. In exchange, the U.S. will not disturb Russia in the Black Sea and Caspian basins. Maybe the new bipolar dichotomy will appear in the north-south axis, and not in the east-west axis as it was during the Cold War.

In such a climate, every country in the region will have to adapt their foreign policies accordingly. Because this is definitely not only about Iran.