North Korea has once again tested a ballistic missile. Experts are not sure what kind of missile it was, but they have pointed out that North Korea has also announced its intention to test intercontinental missiles soon. One wonders where exactly North Korea wants to hit, as it seems eager to develop an intercontinental capacity.

The test was probably a "welcome message" to new U.S. President Donald Trump. Maybe with its intercontinental capacity, North Korea is planning to hit the United States. But more than that, North Korea is, above all, a threat to American allies in east Asia. One of those is South Korea, but North Korea does not need long-range missiles to hit their immediate neighbor. Japan is a little bit far away and North Koreans may very well want to hit there.

The U.S. is apparently aware that the Japanese are quite worried by the North Korean threat. That is why during the Japanese prime minister's visit to Washington, President Trump announced that the U.S. supports Japan 100 percent.

It is uncertain whether Japan will stop worrying after this declaration. Anyway, the U.S. seems to be ready to help Japan beef up its military capacity. In a sense, the North Korean threat provides an excuse for Japan to have a stronger army, so Japanese politicians eager to invest in the military must be pleased with this turn of events. While North Korea appears aggressive, it makes little sense to criticize Japan's wish to have a more efficient military force and since they have Trump's support, the U.S. will perhaps sell expensive weapon systems to Japan, which is also good news for the Trump administration.

Buying weapons is not enough to make Japan a securer country, however. One should look at the broader picture, because the North Korean threat does not explain everything that is going on in east Asia. Maybe North Korea is acting on behalf of another country, namely, China.

If China is indeed behind North Korea's actions, then the U.S. will probably have to increase its military presence in the Pacific. It will also take additional steps to secure Japan and the surrounding region.

Despite what he said before, Trump has recently announced that he respects China's "one China policy." Maybe Trump wants to convey the following message to the Chinese: Do whatever you want in your country, but do not imagine that the U.S. will simply pull its troops from east Asia. China, however, keeps enlarging its zone of influence in the region, and will probably continue to test how far they will be able to go.

For several reasons, China would not want to test Trump's patience and so limits its actions. It may prove quite risky, in fact for the country to do anything that would encourage a major shift in U.S. policy. But North Korea may do this, because, officially, no other country needs to approve its actions. One can even blame one person, the country's authoritarian leader, for all the provocative behavior. In other words, it is easier to make North Korea to do all the dangerous work. Besides, North Korea's actions are being closely watched by another country in the region: Russia. When North Korea is provoking troubles, Russia, too, has to decide what to do, choose a camp and decide who to support.

If North Korea is threatening Japan and not South Korea, that means the tension will continue, but it will not necessarily result in a war. Because military tension between North and South Korea is harder to control. So, we are not yet at a point where war is a real option in the region. However, all players have begun waving guns at each other, proving that east Asia and the Pacific region have entered a period of high tension.

There was a time when China held the balance between the U.S. and the USSR. Maybe now, it is time for Russia to hold the balance between the U.S. and China.