The US in Syria…once again

The de facto situation in Syria is pushing the U.S. to make the right choice, yet if the same mistakes are repeated in the region, it will be almost impossible to have an effective say



If you look at the most recent developments, it would appear some things are changing in the Syrian crisis. The most important recent development is, of course, that Donald Trump took office. The second development is about what is going on in al-Bab, in other words, the situation in the fight against the Daesh terrorist group.

There are several players in the al-Bab region, and for now, they are simply looking at each other: Turkish troops, the Free Syrian Army (FSA), the outlawed PKK's Syrian terrorist wing the Democratic Union Party (PYD) and Iranian forces. On paper, they are all fighting Daesh, but they also do not trust one another. They have stopped near al-Bab because they have not decided yet what to do afterwards. In other words, who is going to pursue the fight in Raqqa?

Raqqa is the so-called capital of Daesh, and al-Bab is the gate that will open the road to Raqqa. The destiny of Raqqa, on the other hand, will determine what will happen next in Damascus.

In fact, neither Raqqa nor al-Bab are essential. The question is, who is going to reign in Damascus and how much of Syria will be under Damascus' control. The problem is judging what to expect for Syria's future.

It seems now that Syria will not be dismembered. It will, however, become a loose federation, where Damascus will not be too anti-Western. Easier said than done. Perhaps it will be possible to eradicate Daesh, but what will become of its sympathizers? Will the Syrian Kurds be satisfied to get their autonomy from Damascus, or will they try to build stronger ties with the region's other Kurds? Will Iran renounce its influence in Syria? In the wake of a bloody civil war, will the Arabs, Turkmens, Kurds, Shiites or Sunnis accept living side by side, or will all of them retreat to a region of their own? Will the future Syria be somewhere like Bosnia, or Cyprus?

That's why Trump's decisions are important. For now, the United States seems determined to eradicate Daesh, but the Syrian crisis cannot be reduced to the fight against Daesh. That's why Washington must quickly decide about the other components in the equation.

Russia is, no doubt, the main opponent of the U.S. in Syria. That's why NATO has launched military exercises in Romania, it is sending troops to the Baltic states and President Trump has criticized Russia about Crimea. Maybe the U.S. is trying to tell the Russians that if they want to remain influential in Syria, they must accept the U.S.'s influence in Eastern Europe. We do not know if Russia will accept that. The bargain is not yet finished, and the two sides are trying to forge a tacit deal.

In this context, the U.S. must decide what to do about Turkey and the Syrian Kurds as well. Washington is trying, apparently, to win both in order to reduce Russia's room to maneuver in Syria; and to put more pressure over Damascus. We do not know what Trump will decide in the end, but the best way out would be to make sure that Turkey, the Syrian Kurds and the moderate Arab opposition fight together against Daesh. Such an alliance, however, does not seem likely anytime soon. That is why the U.S. will have to get involved directly in the fight.

In brief, the "Turks ahead, Americans behind" formula will have to change to "Americans ahead, Turks behind." It is not credible, by the way, to expect the U.S. to turn its back on the Syrian Kurds, so maybe one needs to make sure that the Syrian Kurds do not target Turkey. In other words, to make sure they cut all ties with the PKK.

The U.S. may try to say that to the Kurds, but will they accept it? To disconnect the PKK and the PYD may solve many parts of the equation. The remaining parts of the equation, on the other hand, may be solved if one could expose who is behind Daesh. It would be wonderful if Trump lets this secret slip.