Turkey's choice: Takeoff or landing position


According to recently announced second quarter data, which is consistent with this week's unemployment figures for June, Turkey's economy has gone through temporary stagnation. This cyclical shrinkage in the economy is likely to reawaken the discussion that "Turkey's economy needs a new growth model," which came into question after former Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan criticized the central bank's monetary policy and high interest rates. For me, tight monetary and fiscal policies, which have been exacerbated further by the central bank with high interest rates since early 2014, are the mainsprings of this shrinkage.Here is an undeniable fact: Data that has been divulged show us that the current monetary and fiscal policies - as well as the growth model that complements them - do not work now. This is not troubling for Turkey alone, but for developing countries, including strong economies such as Brazil, facing it today. The same data also shows that all the structural problems of developing countries, such as inflation, unemployment and the current account deficit, are the products of orthodox monetary and fiscal policies that have been imposed by the IMF and World Bank on those countries since 1947 - i.e., the Cold War period.A day after low growth figures for the Q2 was announced, Martin Raiser, the country director for Turkey at the World Bank, said, "The long-term low growth rate poses a threat for Turkey. Inflation should be eased to achieve a loose monetary policy, and [the country] needs a positive real interest rate. Recently, production and private investments have been repressed in Turkey." It is very curious that Raiser verbalized these incoherent sentences one after another without any hesitation; oddly enough, however, we hear these kinds of nonsensical arguments from Turkey's opposition block and even from some figures in the economic administration.Saying, "The low growth rate is a problem and private investments are repressed in Turkey" and "Turkey needs higher interest rates" in the same sentence is incongruous both with regard to economics and human logic. Moreover, the IMF and World Bank positions that they have imposed on developing countries since 1947 have nothing to do with humanity either. Unless Turkey gets rid of neoliberal monetary and fiscal policies, it cannot make use of opportunities that it has found recently. The second quarter growth figures that fell short of expectations are likely to trigger further discussions about the central bank's present monetary policy and developing a new growth model.Well, what should countries like Turkey do? At this point, South Korea serves as a unique example. We cannot consider the effectiveness of the public sector in the economy as a statist economy. Today, developing countries should allow market mechanisms in the real economy and the flow of information in financial markets through an effective public sector. The banking system should be cleansed of crony capitalism soon. Turkey's Bank Asya is a good example of this. While the U.S.' Lehman Brothers was going bankrupt in 2008, it fulfilled the Basel criteria. In such periods as this, static evaluation models do not work. What is important is whether it disturbs the whole system or not.Had Turkey not impounded bankrupt banks in the 2001 crisis, it could not have the world's strongest banking system today. In addition to this, the Turkish Central Bank should not care about inflation alone; it should also adopt a monetary policy that prioritizes employment just like the U.S. Federal Reserve. It seems that many things will change in the economy under Erdoğan's presidency, and Turkey will take steps toward a new non-statist economy that highlights public benefits. As I mentioned in my previous articles, this will not be a statist, inwardoriented and autarchic economy; on the contrary, it will offer a way out that includes anti-monopolistic regulations, prioritizes global competition and attracts global investments with uninterrupted free entrance in markets. This is the beginning of a New Deal for Turkey and other developing countries. Now, Turkey has to decide whether it wants to move forward or to go around in circles. I am sure Turkey will seize this opportunity to invigorate its economy further.