EU and US: War-driven crisis, peace-inspired pendulum


I think the risk of recession in the EU will top the bloc's leaders' agenda during this week's meeting scheduled to be held in Brussels. Currently, one of the main challenges for the EU is that the eurozone may encounter a deep recession, which may include Germany increasing its traction. I am quite sure the EU cannot find a solution to this problem without pinpointing its cause. Referring to this week's gathering, Charles Dallara, the former managing director of the Institute of International Finance, said, "It's a wake-up call to the entire eurozone leadership that the strategy they have been following, with a strong fixation on the fiscal deficit targets, is not working." However, for me, the trouble in the EU is not confined to the fiscal deficit alone, as it is only one of the consequences of the crisis that the EU is presently experiencing. Apart from being too far off a common fiscal policy, the EU still lacks a holistic monetary policy to complement its monetary union, which has continued since 1999 with the introduction of the euro as a common currency. It should not be forgotten that without a common policy which would complement the unifying monetary policy pursued by the European Central Bank (ECB), the EU cannot be a union in the real sense. Moreover, as long as the EU continues along this path, it can create a new crisis of its own, in addition to the resonating effects of the global economic crisis. So, there are two main causes of this crisis in the EU. The first one is that the pace of the construction of a European banking union is "too slow," as indicated by American economist Joseph Stiglitz, who called for the "mutualization" of euro-area debt. That's a position that Germany and other nations have rejected. "You need more of what you'd call a fiscal union. Monetary policy can't really be a substitute for fiscal union," Stiglitz said. These are the general facts for the entirety of the EU. Referring to the situation in Germany in particular, Stiglitz stated in an article titled "Europe's Austerity Zombies" published on Project Syndicate that "if the facts don't fit the theory, change the theory, goes the old adage. But too often it is easier to keep the theory and change the facts - or so German Chancellor Angela Merkel and other pro-austerity European leaders appear to believe. Though facts keep staring them in the face, they continue to deny reality." Taking Stiglitz's remarks into consideration, we can say that the first reason of today's euro crisis is Germany's denial of reality and pursuance of orthodox austerity policies in order to keep things in its own favor. The second one is that the EU's enlargement is being impeded by Germany, which is of particular concern to Turkey as well. The EU has to expand toward its east; otherwise, the present economic crisis will turn into a political one anytime soon. As the ECB reaffirmed last week that it is adamant about expansion, there are only few things left to be done by Germany. As Stiglitz suggests, one of the mainsprings of today's crisis is that Germany thinks it will get out of crisis with austerity policies and by dragging the whole Europe into a stalemate with these policies for the sake of its own interests. Now, the U.S. and the U.K. acknowledge this truth and they approach Germany with suspicion as they did after World War II. As for the U.S., at the Conference on Economic Opportunity and Inequality a few days ago, the Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen expressed her concerns about the extent of income inequality in the U.S., saying, "The past several decades have seen the most sustained rise in inequality since the 19th century after more than 40 years of narrowing inequality following the Great Depression. By some estimates, income and wealth inequality are near their highest levels in the past hundred years, much higher than the average during that time span and probably higher than for much of American history before then." This is an extremely important remark, which revealed a great outburst of thoughts, or perhaps, it is the first time in the Fed's history that a chair confessed this reality. The wealthiest 5 percent of American households possessed 63 percent of all wealth, Yellen said. As you know, a group of activists wearing green t-shirts with "What Recovery?" printed on the front and a chart depicting sluggish U.S. wage growth on the back rocked the Fed's annual Jackson Hole conference in August 2014.The activists, most of whom were unemployed and seeking jobs, reacted against the peripheral Fed member banks, which went to any lengths to increase interest rates and continuously claimed that the U.S. economy has recovered. At the same time, this movement was a response to the neo-con bloc, which suggested that things will get better as the Fed pursues tighter monetary policies. Essentially, they were angry with the neo-con attitude, which turns a blind eye to the unemployed American people and does not care about anything that occurs outside the U.S. Taking all this into consideration, it is possible to come to the following conclusions: First of all, for the EU to get out of this crisis, it should strive for being a true union and expanding toward its east, including Turkey. To this end, the obstacles posed by Germany should be eliminated and the EU should reconstruct its institutions, the ECB in particular, in line with the common interests of all member countries. The European Commission should also be reconstructed and a new expansionary policy should be introduced. As for the U.S., the Fed should turn a deaf ear to bellicose Republican calls for higher interest rates and preserving the precious dollar and should go its own way regardless of their views. The U.S. should support growth in developing countries and world peace. President Barack Obama should prove that he deserves his Nobel Peace Prize and should not forget that higher interest rates and a precious dollar would mean war at the same time. This goes against the U.S.'s long-term benefits. What is to the benefit of all humanity goes against the interests of nation-states.