Davutoğlu’s strategic visits to Baghdad, Irbil, Athens and Warsaw


Looking at the countries that Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu visited last month reveals the foreign policy and economic strategy that Turkey has adopted in this new period. Following the G20 Leaders' Summit held in Australia, Davutoğlu visited Baghdad, Irbil, Athens and Warsaw respectively. As part of his official talks in Warsaw, Davutoğlu met Polish Prime Minister Ewa Kopacz and President Bronislaw Komorowski to address topics such as the negotiation process with the EU, the Cyprus question and developments in Syria and Iraq. Davutoğlu's visits to Baghdad and Irbil are of critical importance in that Turkey wants to clean up the problems of energy and commercial transits that arose during the Maliki administration. The energy trading and construction of energy lines starting from Irbil undoubtedly indicate the beginning of a new regional integration. Unlike the Maliki administration, Turkey is now being supported by Baghdad in these attempts. Russian President Vladimir Putin's recent visit to Ankara was also important because Putin suggested that the South Stream gas pipeline should be scrapped and that natural gas should be carried from Russia to Europe through a new Turkish gas line to be named Turk Stream. This reveals that Russia does not regard the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) as a rival, quite the contrary; it considers it as a part of this integration because it passes through Turkey. Thus, Russia has disclosed to the whole world that from now on it will cooperate in energy with Turkey, rather than Germany. The Eastern European countries will purchase natural gas that will be carried by Turk Stream, indicating that Germany will stay out of the European energy equation. If Russia's Turk Stream replaces the South Stream, natural gas will be carried to Europe via the following four ways: Russia-Turk stream, the Trans Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP) - Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP), Kirkuk - Ceyhan Oil Pipeline and the Eastern Mediterranean pipeline. All of these four pipelines will reach Europe, passing through Turkey, and there is no alternative to them both in terms of supply security and financial cost. The president of European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, immediately objected to Russia's proposal to discard the South Stream, saying that this goes against the EU's interests. I think Juncker is totally wrong in his argument, as the replacement of the South Stream with Turk Stream will work for the benefit of Europe, but it will work against that of Germany. By arguing this, Juncker is no doubt trying to pay thanks to Germany, which had supported his candidacy strongly. The fact that Russian, Iraqi and Caspian energy resources will reach Europe through Turkey will enable Europe to have access to cheap and safe energy, as well as unfolding a new expansion strategy for the EU. Similarly, that the Levantine energy resources will reach Europe through Turkey is a strategic step that will resolve the Cyprus question and invigorate the Greek economy. However, Greece, under the influence of Israel, allowed Greek Cyprus to suspend negotiations with Turkish Cyprus, raising the importance of Davutoğlu's visit to Athens. All of these steps, as stated above, mean a new expansion strategy and the end of a crisis for the EU. This, at the same time, means that the Eastern European countries will grab the opportunity to recover. Eastern European countries like Poland paid high costs for natural gas as Germany exercised its influence over the Russian Gazprom, making Russia sell natural gas to these countries at high prices. As they paid high costs for energy, the productivity of their industry dropped and they had to embrace neo-liberal policies imposed by Germany. Germany regards all Eastern European countries as if they are its satellites and does not want them to develop new independent economic models. Countries like Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic, which have very high industrial productivity and potential for exports and competition, are almost entirely surrounded by German-centric financial oligarchy. These countries, including Ukraine, have industrial businesses that can be assertive in global competition thanks to a very high industrial productivity dating back to the Cold War period. Today, aircraft and motor industries are very advanced and there are large-scale businesses in Ukraine. Now, Turkey advises these countries that they should appreciate the value of their human capital, industrial wealth and saving, thus, Turkey will bring them the Middle Eastern, Caucasian and Russian energy under optimal conditions. Turkey also suggests that they should strive for a new Europe as a German-centric Europe is not a solution.Turkey advised Baghdad and Irbil that they should be engaged in a new union with Turkey as this is the only way of integrating with Europe. Poland should not forget that Germany's fascistic expansion that caused World War II started with Germany's invasion of Poland on Sept. 1, 1939. Poland is the key country for a new Europe and Davutoğlu's visit to the country is important in this regard.