Why won’t Turkey and Russia suffer a crisis?


The recent remarks of U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen made me think that she and U.S. President Barack Obama will not make the mistake made by former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan and former U.S. President Bill Clinton in 1995. As you may remember, with the Plaza Accord signed in 1985, the U.S. unfolded the productivity of American industry and increased industrial exports by keeping the U.S. dollar lower than the German mark and Japanese yen, but it relegated Germany and Japan in this way. Germany began handling the situation only when it reunified with East Germany in 1990. With the Plaza Accord, profits surged in the U.S. and the price of raw materials and energy ran even higher, while interest rates began dropping due to financialization. Until 1995, Clinton made the most of this situation. The financialization and the upsurge in representative money sparked small crises in countries apart from the U.S., Europe and Japan. The crises experienced in Mexico, South Korea, Russia and Turkey were essentially preliminary crises that foreshadowed the current problems. The growing demand for the dollar caused rapid capital outflow from these countries and developing countries were caught unprepared for this rapid outflow. At every step he took, including the Reverse Plaza Accord in 1995, Clinton paved the way for the Bush administration in all respects. In 1995, while the Fed was assessing the dollar with the Reverse Plaza Accord, it allowed the U.S. to have a deficit, but in return for this, it was saving Germany and Japan. So, what triggered Germany's current propensity toward Nazism was the historical mistake made by the Fed in 1995. This mistake, at the same time, brought Bush to power. However, while the U.S. was planning to close its deficits relying on a strong dollar and high interest rate, it failed to foresee that it could not control dollar supply, which would emerge as toxic assets for mortgage companies in 2008. Actually, Greenspan knew this, which was a great concern for him in those days. Toward the end of his tenure, Greenspan was constantly verbalizing that the system would collapse and swallow everyone. His suggestions came true; this was a vicious cycle that entrapped everyone. But, today, this is not the world of the 1990s, as Europe is in the midst of a much deeper crisis, and countries like Russia and Turkey are not as weak as they were at the time. In the 1990s, Russia did not know where to turn under the hegemony of oligarchs and it was a self-enclosed economy that failed to commercialize the huge industrial and space technologies inherited from the Soviet Union. At this time, Turkey was ruled by coup makers and the east of the country saw Kurdish uprisings. Furthermore, its economy was despoiled and was doomed to neoliberal policies. The Turkish financial system was extremely shallow and its banking system was vulnerable. The Turkish public banks made losses of millions of dollars every year, while the public debt was unabatedly increasing. Under these circumstances, Russia and Turkey were greatly affected by rapid capital outflow in the 1990s and faced serious crises, as the two countries could not unleash their economic potential. Today, the Turkish industry is on the rise and industrial exports are continuously increasing. The ratio of Turkey's public debt to gross domestic product is far below the euro convergence criteria (Maastricht criteria) and Turkey's current account deficit, which is a structural economic problem, is constantly shrinking. The falling oil prices and Turkey becoming an energy hub will bring the country's inflation to a reasonable level as of 2015 as they reduce energy costs. This will also help GDP growth. Aside from oil and natural gas, today Russia is finding ways to globalize its technological accumulation and President Vladimir Putin is striving to save Russia from the oligarchic hegemony of the 1990s. After the Soviet Union collapsed, Russian oligarchs were functioning as subcontractors of the West, transferring the country's resources and capital abroad. Now, this situation in Russia is about to end. The fact that oil prices dropped to $50 may disturb Russia today, but it will not lead to a serious crisis in the country, unlike in the West. Quite the opposite, the fact that Russia faces financial strain and has suspended its commercial relations with the West makes Russia seek other means, which will deepen the crisis in Europe further. Despite European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi's new monetary expansion policies, the risk of recession grips Europe more every passing day. The unemployment figures which rapidly grow even in Germany show us that Europe is coming to a dead end in economic and political terms. This problem is not limited to Europe alone, but it applies to the U.S. as well. The neo-con bloc in the U.S. is insisting on an earlier interest rate hike, which will push up the dollar's value further, even though the dollar is already on the rise due to the developments in the Middle East. This will also geometrically maximize the U.S.'s foreign trade deficit, taking the U.S. back to the vicious cycle of the 1990s. In short, high interest rates mean a higher dollar and more military spending for the U.S. The rise of the dollar with the U.S.'s intervention in the Middle East should remind the whole world of the vicious cycle of 1995, as it will drag the American and global economies into a much deeper crisis than the 2008 crisis. As stated above, Obama and Yellen should not fall into the same mistake made by Clinton and Greenspan in 1995.Recently Putin said that Turkey's becoming an energy hub and the replacement of the South Stream with a Turkish Stream would not disturb Russia, however, this would be a great concern for Europe. It seems Putin means Germany in particular when he says "Europe."Russia and Turkey no longer have morbid economies like they did in the 1990s, and what is sick today is Europe. Therefore, acting in line with the rules of economic rationality will work for the benefit of all humanity.