The dynamics that will determine 2015 (I)


The upcoming years for Turkey were determined in 2014. The key development that left its mark on the year was the presidential election and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's accession to the presidency. The fact that Erdoğan was elected president by popular vote, beyond any doubt, ushered in a new era, not only in Turkey, but also in a vast territory stretching from Caucasia to Europe. Erdoğan's vision and political will strives to go beyond the pro-status-quo institutions of the "established" system and politics it produced. The more this political will went beyond the established system, the more it produced institutional and intellectual alternatives. The institutionalization of this political will in the top echelons of the state undoubtedly meant the reconstruction of the Republic of Turkey and its institutions from top to bottom. I think this new situation is not only a new phase for the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) government, which has remained in power for over a decade, but it is also a new phase in Turkey's Republican system.Succeeding Erdoğan, Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu, described this phase as a new period, or rather, a period of restoration. The fact that Erdoğan was elected president and Davutoğlu became prime minister with the claim of starting a new period has three important historical outcomes:1. Turkey has begun activating its potential power and determining policy in the region. Turkey is no longer a weak country that is "manipulated" in the region. Now it is changing the borders of the Middle East, which were originally drawn by blood. The Kurdish peace process is a very important beginning in this sense. Furthermore, reaching Caspian, Iraqi and Levantine energy resources, as well as new commercial transits and market networks, are very important strategic developments in economic terms.2. To label Davutoğlu's claim that a potentially historic power will unfold with a new political will as neo-Ottomanism and pan-Islamism is a great distortion. This is a scientific diagnosis suggesting that the Western-made dominant nation states, which left their mark on the 20th century, will decline, and they will be replaced by new regional unions (or states), as so far has been proven. 3. This change will succeed only if these new regional unions, including Turkey, gradually reject the economic system that has been developed by the West since the 1970s and establish a fair regional economy, which is free from unearned income and monopolistic exploitation.For the completion of these important changes, energy integration in the vast region that stretches from Caucasia to Europe is a very important opportunity and instrument. Let's take a look at the EU's current dependence on energy.The EU consumed 560 billion cubic meters of natural gas in 2013, whereas it produced around 200 billion cubic meters of it, corresponding to a natural gas import of 360 billion cubic meters. This means that the EU is 64 percent dependent on the import of natural gas. It has been predicted that the EU's natural gas consumption will hit 760 billion cubic meters in 2030, pointing to the possibility that its dependency will reach around 80 percent. In short, the EU's natural gas imports will increase by 340 billion cubic meters in 2030. The EU can fill this gap from Russia or the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) through Turkey. There is no other alternative.The Trans Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP) project is the vital part of the SGC, which will carry Azerbaijani, Central Asian, Middle Eastern and Levantine gas reserves to Europe through Turkey. This is a huge problem for Germany; if the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) and SGC come into effect simultaneously, it will put an end to the clandestine partnership between Russia and Germany, and Turkey will move ahead of Germany regarding market and energy surveillance.Russian President Vladimir Putin certainly knows that the EU is essentially just Germany at this point and that the best way to hit the EU is to hit Germany. Therefore, he struck his golden shot during his recent visit to Turkey. During the visit this month, Putin announced that he had discarded South Stream and put forward a new natural gas pipeline passing through Turkey. Thus, Putin actually announced that it was a partner with the SGC. We will discuss these remarks of Putin in 2015. If these steps come true, the whole equitation, both in the EU and the Middle East, will change. In this period, Russia plans on collaborating with Turkey not only in energy but also in technology. Putin's termination of South Stream is a very strategic, historical step.Iraq's Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi visited Turkey this week. Before the visit, the central Iraqi government revoked the lawsuits that it had litigated in international courts in order to hamper the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG)'s oil sales through Turkey. Over 800 oil companies across the world focused their attention on this region at a time when the amount of oil that will flow through the Kirkuk-Yumurtalık pipeline is targeted to reach 1 million barrels. Like Putin, al-Abadi and his entourage did not only talk about energy in Turkey, but also a wide range of topics including economic relations, banking, investment, civil aviation, transportation and energy cooperation. Thus, Turkey is becoming a transition center where the Middle Eastern and Caucasian economies are globalized, starting with energy. In parallel with these developments, we can say that Istanbul will be the new pricing and financial center of the world in the 21st century.