The New Silk Road union and the terror game in Turkey


The recent bomb attack that took place in the Turkish border town of Suruç that targeted a group of young people who were en route to rebuilding the Syrian town of Kobani was undoubtedly a multifaceted terror act at a time when Turkey is in the process of forming a new government. Unfortunately, in this day and age, war is the intensified version of politics and all economic crises in the system are resolved by resorting to war. Likewise, civil wars, which have replaced traditional wars, are a very important method of economic sharing. The rehearsal for a new civil war is being practiced in the eastern provinces of Turkey. The Suruç massacre, beyond any doubt, is a part of this rehearsal, and the target that was leveled lays bare the perpetrator's objective of carrying these conflicts into the west of the country. Well, by whom and for what reason was the Suruç massacre conducted and who masterminds the attempts to drag Turkey into a civil war, starting from the east of the country? Why is it the start of a war on sharing?As is known, today Turkey is a strategic country in terms of energy lines that pass through Turkey and for Asian and African markets. Without Turkey, the Mediterranean and North African economy and trade cycle, as well as the Caspian, Iraqi and Iranian energy lines cannot reach Europe. Turkey will not only host these energy and commodity transits, it will also control these transits and set prices. Even before Iran and the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council - the U.S., U.K., France, Russia and China plus Germany - known as the P5+1, reached a nuclear deal, the fact that Turkey carries Caspian energy resources to Europe through the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) and thus achieved a dominant position is of great trouble for those who had determined energy transits and prices until then. Iran's agreement with the West, so to speak, has doubled this trouble.Following the nuclear deal with Iran, Turkey and Pakistan have come to the fore as the two most strategic corridors for the export of Iranian natural gas to Asian and European markets. Considering that the export of Iranian gas to international markets will soar, Pakistan is in a strategic and economic position in carrying it to Indian and Chinese markets in Asia, while Turkey is in the same position in carrying it to European countries. The Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline, which is slated to carry 8 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually, has been completed from South Pars Gas Field in the south of Iran to the Pakistani border. Thus far, Pakistan has not been able put this line in place because of U.S. pressure. Now, with the contribution of China, Pakistan will complete this line and put it into force. The China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) will also become a part of efforts to put the line into force in 2017. Considering China's energy line agreements with Russia, Russia and Iran will reach the Asia Pacific through energy lines, this will be one of the major steps toward a new economy and trade cycle.Another route from where Iranian gas will open up to the world is a line that starts in the south of the country and reaches the north of Oman, passing beneath the Gulf of Oman. Iran plans to build a liquefied natural gas plant on the shore of the Arabian Sea, from which it will carry its natural gas to world markets by ship. For Iran to put Pakistani and Omani lines into force, it first must start exporting gas to Europe and urgently make agreements that will enable hot money inflow. Turkey is the only route to achieve this. More precisely, Turkey is the shortest and the most efficient route for Iranian gas to reach Europe. This route has two constituents: The first is the Tabriz-Ankara pipeline, through which Turkey receives 10 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Iran annually. Turkey will carry Iranian gas to Europe in the future. This line can rapidly transform into a pipeline that reaches Europe. In this case, all agreements that Germany made with Russia will be revised and the alliance between Germany and Russia will suffer a major blow in terms of Europe's energy supply. This development will be for the good of the EU, as competition will increase and a lower price equilibrium will occur.On the other hand, Turkey will carry Caspian energy resources to the EU through the Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP), which is the backbone of the SGC. If TANAP is completed in 2018, it is expected to carry 18 billion cubic meters of Azeri gas annually in the first phase. This figure is expected to reach 23 billion cubic meters and 31 billion cubic meters in 2023 and 2026, respectively. Thus, more gas will be received from Azerbaijan and Iran. In addition to the Tabriz-Ankara pipeline, the installation of a new line from Iran's South Pars Gas Field to Turkey is one of the projects on the agenda. This new line, dubbed the Iran-Europe pipeline or IGAT-9, would extend along 1,800 kilometers in west Iran and reach the Turkish border in a south-north direction. The project is expected to cost around $8 billion and carry 35 billion cubic meters of gas to Greece, Italy and other European countries annually through Turkey.Well, what kind of an economy does this whole picture put in front of us? Undoubtedly, what is emerging is not only an issue about energy, but also a new political and economic integration and a new paradigm whose heart will be Turkey. This picture will rapidly lead to new political alliances, new diplomacy and a new economic policy.China's economic development will be coupled with the formation of the New Silk Road union with Pakistan, Iran and Turkey. The New Silk Road union will first highlight bilateral trade agreements and trade based on local currencies and then will bring a human capital transition where borders will be ineffective. This, as Andre Gunder Frank suggests in his "ReOrient: Global Economy in the Asian Age" is a new path of peace or a new eastern development that will end the West's nearly 500-year-old hegemony. If we look from this broad perspective, we will understand by what powers and for what purpose the rehearsal for a civil war emerging in eastern Turkey is being practiced.