How far will Russia go despite Turkey?


Russia's intervention in Syria, undoubtedly, is a major development that tells us of the upcoming period. As Russia claims, Turkey thinks that it should pound Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) targets alone and should not aim at moderate opposition groups is Syria. In the current stage, however, there is unfortunately a great contrast between what is said and what has happened. I touched on this in one of my previous articles, saying, "Russia should not create a continuous state of war by adhering to its strategy of a Eurasian union (a post-Soviet empire) and by captivating former Soviet countries on one hand, and by supporting dictatorships such as Iran and Syria in the Middle East on the other. We have witnessed that this state of war can no longer keep oil prices high, contrary to how Russia thinks. Considering that Russia can carry its energy through the Mediterranean and Thrace, it needs Turkey for energy transits as well. Furthermore, the energy stock exchange and the energy market to soon be established in Turkey will benefit Russia most and frustrate the EU's claims that Russia has created an energy monopoly. In short, Kremlin's proposal of a new union, a new economy and trade cycle and a concomitant monetary system is applicable, but it will remain the dream of a 19th century empire without Turkey."After I wrote this article, Russia launched its airstrikes that directly support the Syrian regime. This move from Russia cannot be addressed independently from the United States and EU, since it is very hard for Russia to make such a move irrespective of the two. Any move that challenges the U.S. and EU in the world, and Turkey in the region, is doomed to failure. There is no chance of a new cold war or direct cooperation between Russia and the U.S., but we can talk about Russia's attempts to fill the gap that the U.S. has left.Now, the U.S. prefers the Pacific region to the Middle East and the Caucasus. The debates over the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate hike are not merely simple discussions about technical details. A Fed that relies on hawkish moves and high interest rates, hence on an overvalued dollar, in terms of monetary policies, tells us of a U.S. that is the police power of the world. Indeed, such a U.S. is largely in the past after the 2008 financial crisis. An all-powerful U.S., which was enforcedly financed by Japan in the past and by China and other Asian countries now, is becoming a thing of the past.Japan has already made quite a leap with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and is looking for ways to amend the laws that date back to World War II to make the country dependent on the U.S. As for China, it does not bring is growth down as claimed, it just exports intense amounts of capital to the old colonies - particularly Africa - of the West. China's own growth drops, but it drives the south's growth up. This means China purchases fewer dollars and does not pay attention to the U.S.'s financing. Because of all this, there is a free space for Russia. The matter does not concern U.S. President Barack Obama, but the decreasing power of the U.S.Russia's direct military weight in Ukraine and Syria and its political influence on the Caucasus indicates that the U.S., as former U.S. President Theodore Roosevelt said, is ceasing to be an international police power and the sole sovereign imperialistic power and is losing the economic infrastructure of this. Those who correlate this rise of Russia to Obama's incompetence and cowardice are greatly mistaken. Now, no one should expect a U.S. administration similar to that of former President George W. Bush and should not think that Russia will establish a post-Soviet empire. This is because, as in the past, Russia is just striving to reach Europe and to eliminate all obstacles to this end by opening the ways of trade, transportation and market. Peter the Great established Saint Petersburg only to achieve this, and for this reason Russia cannot abandon Ukraine and Syria. The Putin administration knows that the EU will not be able to make the slightest move while it is doing this and that the U.S. is more interested in the Pacific region and on the verge of withdrawing from this geography.Just as the U.S. cannot switch to a hawkish economic policy by launching an interest rate hike, it cannot directly intervene in the Middle East either, like the Bush administration did. It seems the U.S. will strive to maintain its influence on the region through reconciliation even with Russia and Iran. Furthermore, for the U.S., Iran has become a more strategic ally than Israel. This is because an Iran included in the system might minimize the EU's dependency on Russia in energy and the U.S. is merely diversifying the fields of alliance in this region.As for Turkey, the West takes great pleasure in a contention between Russia and Turkey as seen in the Crimean war of 1853, which is considered the beginning of the end of the Russian and Ottoman empires. If Russia makes such a historic mistake, it will be a calamity. It is an undeniable fact that the Latakia-Aleppo economic cycle and the Eastern Mediterranean energy fields are fields of a major confrontation. Turkey will further highlight its trump cards including the Turkish Stream. The Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) and other energy transits are of greater importance now.As a result, Turkey is an important and strategic power and stands for democracy against all odds. As such, regulations that go counter to Turkey's interests in the region are unsustainable and also against the interests of the system in the long term.