The US's new path and the Middle East equation
The U.S., the dominant power at the top of the system, has realized before anyone else that it would fail to maintain the system with the existing hierarchy
I think the reason why some are surprised that the U.S. Federal Reserve cannot just launch an interest rate hike is their failure to see the infallibly sensitive mechanism between economy and politics. Politics, which is the intensified form of economy, comes to the fore and determines the economy especially in times of crises. This situation continues until a new state of balance is achieved and then enters a period where the economy comes forward again.
Since the 2008 financial crisis, U.S. politics has been reshaping the game by bringing the Pacific region under control under President Barack Obama's administration. This can be considered withdrawal when compared to the moves made under former President George W. Bush's administration. More precisely, however, the dominant power at the top of the system has realized before anyone else that it would fail to maintain the system with the existing hierarchy. Perhaps, this is the U.S.'s typical way of showing off its strength; it started to withdraw after foreseeing that it would weaken at the pinnacle of its power and would face a systemic problem. The U.S. and its system paid a heavy price for the mistake that former Federal Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan and former President Bill Clinton made by introducing the Reverse Plaza Accord in 1995.
The U.S.'s decision to drive up the dollar rapidly and to continue its path with an overvalued dollar and high interest rates have brought the 9/11 attacks, Iraq war and the disintegration of Iraq onto today's agenda. Interestingly enough, what has given rise to the current dynamics in the Middle East and Russian President Vladimir Putin's influence in the region is not the Bush administration, but Democrat Clinton who tried to maintain the system and the U.S. economy through unnecessarily high interest rates and an overvalued dollar. As another Democrat figure, Obama, avoids repeating the mistake that Clinton made in 1995 and suffers the consequences of that mistake by failing to take any action against Putin.
Considering all this, Syrian President Bashar Assad's recent meeting with Putin at the Kremlin is a preference made by the U.S. as much as by Russia. There is another reality in the midst of such equitation in the Middle East. Israel and its Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are in a tighter spot than Assad. This is why Netanyahu has come to say such twaddle, saying that Adolf Hitler did not want to exterminate Jewish people but he was convinced to do this by then Grand Mufti of Palestine, Haj Amin al-Husseini. If Netanyahu thinks that he will put things on track expecting that Jeb Bush, who is the most qualified member of the Bush family, will come to power in the U.S., and adopts a harsh attitude that would lead to a new intifada, he will be stuck in a more disastrous quagmire. If the Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton is elected U.S. president, she will follow in Obama's footsteps, instead of repeating the mistake that her husband made in 1995 with the Reverse Plaza Accord. Similarly, Republican candidate Jeb Bush will also pick up where Obama leaves, instead of taking his father's or brother's path.
In this case, everyone should notice that the Bretton Woods monetary system, which was established under the U.S.'s leadership following World War II, has come to a de facto end. As such, the U.S. can no longer make the world finance the U.S. economy by keeping the dollar up with a high interest rate policy. The U.S. can no longer close its deficits in foreign trade, budget and investments in a period when China and Asia have started to make independent political decisions. Neither can it maintain this imbalance through the political hegemony it has. China uses its surpluses to export capital and changes the hierarchy this way, instead of purchasing dollars and U.S. treasury bills, and Japan amends its constitution that goes back to World War II.
This is a new equitation that is leading to a world where everyone is rapidly becoming equal to one another. It is also a new war on sharing. Any terrorist organization that threatens Turkey's borders and conducts massacres in the country is not local or regional, but global. The PKK, the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) and the Gülenist Terror Organization (FETÖ) are terrorist organizations of this kind and they are managed by the same powers. Such structures and the states supporting them are the upholders of the old system and obviously object to the change of the order that was established after World War II.
This being the case, the only way out for Israel is its fulfillment of all proposals and stipulations set by Turkey. Otherwise, it will fail to reach energy resources in the Mediterranean and face troubles with commercial outlets in the medium term. I am not sure whether it would be optimistic to expect that Netanyahu will come to reason before he feels obliged to say that "Hitler was a nice guy." This statement is actually a way of winking at Germany and a result of a political mind that pushes Netanyahu to think that German Chancellor Angela Merkel will maintain her obdurate stance on Turkey especially after the refugee crisis.
Since the 2008 financial crisis, U.S. politics has been reshaping the game by bringing the Pacific region under control under President Barack Obama's administration. This can be considered withdrawal when compared to the moves made under former President George W. Bush's administration. More precisely, however, the dominant power at the top of the system has realized before anyone else that it would fail to maintain the system with the existing hierarchy. Perhaps, this is the U.S.'s typical way of showing off its strength; it started to withdraw after foreseeing that it would weaken at the pinnacle of its power and would face a systemic problem. The U.S. and its system paid a heavy price for the mistake that former Federal Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan and former President Bill Clinton made by introducing the Reverse Plaza Accord in 1995.
The U.S.'s decision to drive up the dollar rapidly and to continue its path with an overvalued dollar and high interest rates have brought the 9/11 attacks, Iraq war and the disintegration of Iraq onto today's agenda. Interestingly enough, what has given rise to the current dynamics in the Middle East and Russian President Vladimir Putin's influence in the region is not the Bush administration, but Democrat Clinton who tried to maintain the system and the U.S. economy through unnecessarily high interest rates and an overvalued dollar. As another Democrat figure, Obama, avoids repeating the mistake that Clinton made in 1995 and suffers the consequences of that mistake by failing to take any action against Putin.
Considering all this, Syrian President Bashar Assad's recent meeting with Putin at the Kremlin is a preference made by the U.S. as much as by Russia. There is another reality in the midst of such equitation in the Middle East. Israel and its Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are in a tighter spot than Assad. This is why Netanyahu has come to say such twaddle, saying that Adolf Hitler did not want to exterminate Jewish people but he was convinced to do this by then Grand Mufti of Palestine, Haj Amin al-Husseini. If Netanyahu thinks that he will put things on track expecting that Jeb Bush, who is the most qualified member of the Bush family, will come to power in the U.S., and adopts a harsh attitude that would lead to a new intifada, he will be stuck in a more disastrous quagmire. If the Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton is elected U.S. president, she will follow in Obama's footsteps, instead of repeating the mistake that her husband made in 1995 with the Reverse Plaza Accord. Similarly, Republican candidate Jeb Bush will also pick up where Obama leaves, instead of taking his father's or brother's path.
In this case, everyone should notice that the Bretton Woods monetary system, which was established under the U.S.'s leadership following World War II, has come to a de facto end. As such, the U.S. can no longer make the world finance the U.S. economy by keeping the dollar up with a high interest rate policy. The U.S. can no longer close its deficits in foreign trade, budget and investments in a period when China and Asia have started to make independent political decisions. Neither can it maintain this imbalance through the political hegemony it has. China uses its surpluses to export capital and changes the hierarchy this way, instead of purchasing dollars and U.S. treasury bills, and Japan amends its constitution that goes back to World War II.
This is a new equitation that is leading to a world where everyone is rapidly becoming equal to one another. It is also a new war on sharing. Any terrorist organization that threatens Turkey's borders and conducts massacres in the country is not local or regional, but global. The PKK, the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) and the Gülenist Terror Organization (FETÖ) are terrorist organizations of this kind and they are managed by the same powers. Such structures and the states supporting them are the upholders of the old system and obviously object to the change of the order that was established after World War II.
This being the case, the only way out for Israel is its fulfillment of all proposals and stipulations set by Turkey. Otherwise, it will fail to reach energy resources in the Mediterranean and face troubles with commercial outlets in the medium term. I am not sure whether it would be optimistic to expect that Netanyahu will come to reason before he feels obliged to say that "Hitler was a nice guy." This statement is actually a way of winking at Germany and a result of a political mind that pushes Netanyahu to think that German Chancellor Angela Merkel will maintain her obdurate stance on Turkey especially after the refugee crisis.
Last Update: October 23, 2015 02:07