A historic opportunity


Following last week's Turkey-EU summit, the EU has taken the first serious step toward Turkey's accession and notified Turkey with a letter saying that it planned to open five strategic chapters in the membership process. The letter, which was signed by Jean-Claude Juncker, the head of the EU's executive body, the European Commission (EC), was an appendix to the final communiqué of the Turkey-EU summit, which was held on Oct. 29. The topics of energy, judiciary and fundamental rights, justice, freedom and security, education and culture, foreign security and defense policies will be brought up in the first quarter of 2016. Let us note that Juncker's letter and the concrete expression of chapters to be opened is a very important commitment for the EU. This also means that the EU has made a commitment for the removal of the Greek Cypriot Administration's blockade on Turkey's accession. The chapters of energy and defense, which President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has insistently wanted all down the line, are very important in the current conjuncture. This is because when the resolution of the Cyprus question and the topics of energy, defense and foreign security policies are addressed together, it can be suggested that the EU, separately from Germany, will further lean toward Turkey's theses willy-nilly.

Turkish and European diplomatic sources highlight that all topics included in the list are more important than the other. These resources draw attention to Chapter 31, which concerns foreign security and defense policies, and note that even the Syrian crisis alone points to the vital importance of Turkey-EU cooperation. The diplomatic source at the EU said, "The summit we had in Brussels made clear that we should further increase our level of alignment in foreign and defense policies. The opening of this chapter is therefore very significant." As EU rules stipulate that there is a need for the unanimity of the votes of all 28 member countries, the Greek Cypriot administration must be convinced of Turkey's membership. This marks the beginning of a new period where negotiations and Turkey's accession process will be accelerated. I think the EU should take this step without delay. This is because the resolution of the Cyprus question and the removal of Greek Cypriot's blockade on Turkey's membership will also be a response to Russia's aggressive attitude, which violates the rules. Only in this way can Russia start to step back from the moves it previously made in Ukraine and Crimea by violating international law.

Thus, Turkey will both accelerate and diversify the integration of the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC), which started with the Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP). It is a historic responsibility for Turkey to discover and commercialize Levantine and northern Iraqi energy fields, which have so far failed to be commercialized. Russia's return to its own borders and observance of international law is possible only when it faces a serious rival that challenges it in energy and when there is a major alternative to the Russian energy. The only way is if Turkey connects the Caspian energy resources as well as Iraqi (Mosul) and Levantine natural gas reserves to the SGC. This will be an important development that will bring the Turkish-Israeli relations back on track and undermine Iran's threat to Israel. This is because Iran will have no other way out apart from being involved in the SGC in such a case.

It is possible to suggest that opening the way for Turkey's EU accession depends on a fair and permanent reconciliation in Cyprus - which will be one of the strongest steps toward peace in the Levant and the Middle East. Such a situation will bring a major alternative to Russia and Iran in energy and trade routes and Israel will have fewer justifications to pursue hawkish policies. This is because Israel will also want to be a partner to the Levantine energy reserves via the SGC and will be obliged to restore its ties with Turkey.

Today, permanent peace in both the Caucasus and the Middle East is possible with Syria's peace and Russia's return to its own borders from the north and the south. The strongest step toward this is that the EU assumes a more constructive role in the resolution of the Cyprus question; accelerates Turkey's accession process and sets a schedule for its full membership. If the EU delays in doing this, it will face the risk of disintegration in the real sense and succumb to Russia's Eurasian union project.

Let us accept that the process of free trade agreements will gain speed in the upcoming period. From now on, global trade will run with "free trade zones and agreements" that will create the legal structure of an integrated global market. We are facing two basic processes at this point: The first one concerns the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) that has been initiated between the EU and the U.S., and the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which complements the TTIP and has been initiated by the U.S. and Asian countries. The second one is about Pacific-European trade and energy transmission lines that China wants to develop as a part of the New Silk Road. China will receive support from Russia for energy supply in this.

These two fundamental global trade axis are already struggling with each other for market acquisition but, at the same time, they complement each other. This situation, which seems to be paradoxical at first, actually tell us of the multifaceted and current dynamics of globalization.

As the EU and Japan have entered a recession, everyone is aware that there is a single way out of this global crisis: Moving away from so-called globalization and forming a true global economy and politics. To this end, the EU should adopt a new and fair expansion policy to include Turkey, which is located in the heart of trade routes and energy axis. The EU pursued a perspective on this region not to expand toward its east including Turkey but to follow its own interests. So, it overlooked globalization in the real sense.

Now, the refugee and Russian crises have revealed that the EU will do nothing but intensify its current crisis without turning toward its east and seeing the Turkey reality. In this regard, a great opportunity lies ahead of us to ensure permanent peace in the Middle East and the Caucasus and to achieve a true union in Europe.