The dead-end lying ahead of Russia


The tension between Turkey and Russia is very didactical in many respects. For instance, the Russians have undertaken the construction of Turkey's Akkuyu nuclear power plant. During the tension that emerged when Turkey downed a Russian fighter jet after violating Turkish airspace near the border with Syria, neither Turkey nor Russia have made the slightest statement about the Akkuyu nuclear power plant. However, for some reason, some Western wires have published unrealistic news reports claiming that the construction of the power plant has been ceased. The cessation of the construction of the power plant, because of this tension, has not been brought up by the Turkish or Russian parties, but certainly, it has been evaluated.Obviously, this step doesn't make economic sense for either party. The commercial liabilities that the Russian Rosatom State Atomic Energy Corporation, which is the main undertaker of the nuclear power plant project, have assumed has reached $15 billion so far. So, it is not so easy for Russia to abandon the project. Government spokesman and Deputy Prime Minister Numan Kurtulmuş recently said that it would be too early for Turkey to talk about the cancellation of the project. Obviously, if this project stops, Russia will be the party that will end up a loser in both material and moral terms. Turkey will suffer fewer losses and has many other alternatives to Russia. If the Russians quit the project, they run the risk of bankruptcy of Rosatom. However, Russia's loss will not be limited to this alone, as it will see the end of their exportation of nuclear technology, which signifies a much greater loss for the country. Russia has faced a similar loss in the Turkish Stream project as well. The cancellation of the Turkish Stream will be one of the greatest losses that Russia has faced in recent times. This is because the importance of the Turkish Stream has increased for both producer and consumer countries.If Russia behaves in this manner and regards the world as its own territory, it will suffer losses rapidly. We advise Russian President Vladimir Putin to take a look at what is happening in the Pacific region, as he cannot resolve the Eurasian deadlock without looking at that region. Soon, we will see the consequences of China's interest in the West and South, which started with capital exports. The trading of the Chinese yuan as a reserve currency in the immediate future will shake the balances. This development, which will take precedence over the U.S. Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate hike, is the result of a step that China took to make the yuan a reserve currency by pursuing a silent but deep strategy. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has reduced the reference exchange rate of the yuan to the lowest level since 2011. As is known, last month's negotiations between the PBOC and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to evaluate the yuan in the IMF's Special Drawing Basket (SDR) ended positively. The evaluation of the yuan in the SDR means that the IMF sidelines the Bretton-Woods monetary system, which is only based on the dollar. The fact that the PBOC tries to make the yuan extremely sensitive in global money markets indicates that the process will gain speed. In this case, the IMF'S almost supportive attitude toward China is a topic of another comprehensive discussion, which would have the introductory sentence: "The U.S. does not want the dollar to be a strong reserve currency on its own, either."If the dollar continues to be the only strong reserve currency, it will mean the continuance of the 20th century paradigm - which means a great risk for the system. There is no longer a need for this.This will be the strategy of U.S. President Barak Obama and Hillary Clinton, who is a Democratic presidential candidate likely to succeed Obama. The U.S. wants to attract strong countries, which have so far remained on the periphery of the system like China, to the center and its own supervision, and wants to establish and manage new sharing and the concomitant balance.If we look at the current realpolitik by taking this general tendency into consideration, we can see the course of affairs and develop the required solutions. In the Eurasian region, Russia and Iran need to come from the periphery to the center of the system like China. Iran has realized this and made concessions for the finalization of nuclear negotiations, positively. Although Russia has also realized this, it wants to take a step toward a new process by controlling as many domination fields as possible during the transition period. To this end, it aims to disturb Turkey's influence in southern energy and trade routes by controlling Syria. If this game is played irrespective of Turkey, it might cause Russia to hit the wall and disintegrate rapidly.As I stated above, turning the yuan into a basic reserve currency- with the U.S.'s desire as well - is a necessary step for the new period of global trade. From now on, global trade will run with "free trade zones and agreements" that will create the legal structure of an integrated global market. The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) and the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which has been initiated by the U.S. and Asian countries and complements the TTIP, are the first steps to this end. Turkey is the central country of this new commercial order. Therefore, everyone has to come to terms with Turkey. I hope the Cyprus question will be rapidly resolved as part of Turkey's EU accession bid. This being the case, Russia's "secret partners" within the U.S. will leave it alone.Consequently, as is seen in the case of micro problems such as the Akkuyu nuclear power plant and the Turkish Stream, Russia cannot interpret macroeconomic policies in the big picture. As a result of this, Russia's own integrity might face a problem soon and enter a rapid "Balkanization" process. I hope it will not be as tragic as the end of Yugoslavia.