Turkey's 'silent revolution' in progress


Currently, Turkey is on the brink of a major change. However, it is not the only country that is undergoing the pain of change, with other eastern and southern developing countries already shouldering profound change and concomitant renewal. The three regions of the Asia-Pacific, Latin America and the Middle East and North Africa, also known as MENA, are experiencing inevitable change. It appears that we will soon add the Caucasus and Central Africa to these.We need to elaborate on two phenomena to explain this change. as well as its agents, dynamics and trajectory. We need to seek the dynamics of this change in the 2008 financial crisis, which was more far-reaching and more transformative than the 1873 crisis, also known as the Panic of 1873, and the Great Depression of 1923. American economist Joseph Schumpeter's concept of creative destruction, which points to a process of industrial change that constantly destroys the old economic structure and creates a new one, was present during the 2008 crisis. Thus the 2008 crisis emerged as a historical opportunity for developing countries. British economic historian Angus Maddison's following theses from his "Contours of the World Economy 1-2030 AD" are relevant here. Maddison expands on the growth performance of the world economy by 2030, and argues that Asia will outperform the West in growth by 2030, claiming that the falling population growth rate in the West will decline even further, and that the world economy will grow by an average of 3 percent a year. He also says that Asia's growth will be dramatic, as it will actualize a major portion of global production by including China and Japan and will reach the significant position Asia had in the early 19th century. The world has not seen any developments that would disprove this prediction. Quite the contrary, we have entered a period in which developed countries go around in circles due to the impact of the 2008 crisis. We can describe this change as a new development paradigm that started from the East, just as Italian political economist Givanni Arrighi argues in his "Adam Smith in Beijing."Well, is this change good for everyone? I think game theory, from American mathematician John Forbes Nash, can help us find an answer to this question. He says everyone should choose the optimum for himself and his challengers in a spirit of mutual compromise, instead of each choosing what is best for themselves. Thus everyone involved can survive the crisis without a loss. Certainly, the Asia-Pacific region is undergoing a change more smoothly than the Middle East and Africa and this change is indeed helping the system fix itself in Asia. However, it is hard to say the same for the Middle East, Caucasus and Africa.Let us note that the change in Turkey is much more significant, as it is not confined to Anatolia alone and include MENA, Eastern Europe and the Caucasus. Turkey's dynamics of change will also resolve all questions in the entirety of the region dating back to the 20th century, including the Palestine-Israel conflict. At this point, we need to look at President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's pioneering role in Turkey's economic change.Until recently, Turkey's industry and finance was in the grip of an obsolete bourgeoisie that prevented foreign capital inflow to the country by using bureaucratic means. Productivity of Turkish industry was far below the world average, as the industrial sector could sell goods to the domestic market only with government assistance. This monopolized structure was not open to foreign competition. This situation started changing when the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) came to power in 2002 and consolidated further, especially after 2008.This dominant finance and "industrial" capital that accumulated in western Turkey realized that a new industry, which was previously merely a branch, was emerging. In many industrial cities in Anatolia, an economy based on small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) grew beyond merely supply and distribution of intermediate goods for big capital holders, and started carrying out exports. This economic reality shouldered the economic strength of the AK Party's silent revolution and gave rise to a pro-AK Party and pro-Erdoğan middle stratum in Anatolia. Another factor that led to the emergence of this middle class was a relative improvement in income distribution and the fact that a vast stratum, which could be considered poor before 2008, started flourishing rapidly. This new social class, which rapidly accessed technology and media, realized Erdoğan's vision. As Erdoğan received their support, he accelerated the liquidation of the "old." Turkey was no longer a country confined by national borders and indifferent to its east and west, as it had been for the previous 80 years. Under Erdoğan's rule, Turkey embarked on a quest to become a welfare society that would observe regional stability and reach all the strategic economic spheres from which it was expelled during the disintegration of the Ottoman Empire.The motto that "The world is bigger than five" emerged from this process. Turkey accepted questions concerning Bosnia and Herzegovina, Palestine, Mosul-Kirkuk, Aleppo-Latakia and Egypt as part of its responsibility. As such, Erdoğan has offered a glimmer of hope and appeared as a natural political leader for the entirety of the region. This also became a new and national foreign policy path for Turkey. Through the same process, the defense industry, domestic airplane, domestic car, railway networks, highways and airports that reach the most distant parts of the country, universities and energy lines, have become economic indicators of this silent revolution.Bearing all this in mind, we can suggest that Turkey's silent revolution is a new paradigm that will set an example of democratization and development for the entirety of the region. Turkey is seeking a new constitutional consensus to institutionalize democracy. The AK Party will hold an emergency convention on May 22 to elect a new chairman who will also be Turkey's new prime minister. The new government to be formed by the new prime minister will maintain and intensify this silent revolution.