A new era in Turkey after July 15


We need to dwell on the causes and effects of the July 15 attempted coup that will undoubtedly be a critical turning point in Turkey's political and economic history. This is because what will happen from now on is important for Turkey as well as the region and world. We can interpret what has happened over the past two weeks as an accelerated historical process.

In order to explain this process, we need to propose a basic thesis as follows: By means of this attempted coup, Turkey's political and economic paths, which have become clear under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's leadership, have been rapidly moved to the center and have achieved the highest level of social legitimacy. This attempted coup, which has had major global foundations, was directly aimed at this political and economic orientation, which has been explained by Erdoğan. In other words, the center is expressed through Erdoğan and it gains strength as a political reality within the framework of broader social legitimacy. This is not a kind of authoritarian centralization, but a sustainable, outward-oriented and stable democratic regime. So, what are the fundamental elements and dynamics of this new democracy?

Let us elaborate on it, starting with the economy. Apart from the public sector, there are two segments that are the basic dynamics of the Turkish economy. First is the traditionally large capital that has grown with the state and that has been striving for rapid globalization since the 1980s. Second is the economy of small- and medium-sized enterprises (SME) and accompanying the middle class that came to the fore thanks to Erdoğan's vision during the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) rule after the 2001 crisis. The second segment, which started carrying out exports and ceased to be an outlet of traditional capital, recognized the global system and tried to keep up with it through its own means. As a new pro-Erdoğan middle stratum, the large public mass created by the second capital structure resisted the attempted coup on the night of July 15 and considered Erdoğan's call to "take to the streets" as an order. This was because their future and Turkey's future, more specifically Erdoğan's future, would be the same. When you look at the casualties in Istanbul and Ankara, you will see that they are the owners or employees of SMEs, academics, teachers and tradesmen. Under Erdoğan's rule over the past 10 years, those who took part in this great social resistance from the upper economic segments obtained great capital and competitive power that they would have never previously obtained. These "bosses" and their employees marched against the tanks on that bloody Friday evening. In fact, these employees left their life in poverty and moved toward the "middle class" under Erdoğan's rule. They could go on a holiday in their own cars or by airplane as if they were taking a bus. This great heterogeneous social segment resisted the attempted coup until the morning.

The superior mind of the coup makers could not see this reality. We know what this superior mind is made of and where it is. More precisely, the 20th century world, where they still live, made it impossible for them to objectively see this new situation. So, how and for what social and economic reasons did traditional large capital circles join the segments that resisted the attempted coup as of Monday morning? First of all, this capital segment opposed Erdoğan as much as it could and wanted his power to be undermined, at the least. This was because Erdoğan did not accept its "privileged" position and highlighted economic competition. If economic rationality allowed an SME to outdo the top monopoly, this would happen.

Now, we will see the political consequences of this economic centralization. We will witness the rapid restructuring of the state in legal and administrative terms. We will also see the re-formation of politics. Politicians and political parties that draw strength from reactionary global capital circles that tried to stage the coup, and which rely on them inside the country, will be liquidated. I say this for all parties and politicians of all views without any exception.

The traditional large capital in Turkey will move toward a new tendency where it will size its strength by highlighting global competition. Here, Erdoğan's vision needs to be a basic strategy for them like the middle class. Turkey will be a safer and more stable country for foreign investments with constitutional guarantees. It will also carry out economic reforms in a more determined and efficient way. The independence and efficiency of economic regulation and supervision institutions will increase.

I hope everyone will see this reality. I have been observing for the past two weeks that everyone has begun seeing it, with an agreement on the idea that "there is no other Turkey" coming to the fore. Here, all communication channels of the Turkish state are open. Everyone will contribute to the new period, which will be crowned with a new constitution.

Another important point is that the reactionary global players of the attempted coup, which went as far as an occupation, will have to admit that they are defeated not only in Turkey, but also around the whole world. This means a new world economy and politics.