The analysis of Turkey-US relations on the occasion of the UN General Assembly
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's historic speech during the U.N. General Assembly meeting can be considered the first manifesto of a new world order starting from the East. Erdoğan once again highlighted the formula that "The world is bigger than five" as a solution for a number of topical humanitarian issues including the refugee crisis, regional wars, welfare for the poor and the export of the current crisis to developing counties.
Indeed, New York tells many things without having to say or write anything. At least, it reflects Erdoğan's insistent remark that the current course of affairs will entrap the whole of the world if it is not changed.
Here are my observations of New York, where we have been to attend the U.N. General Assembly: The U.S.'s perspective of Turkey certainly has a political and economic (business-trade) aspect. The U.S. seems astonished and it cannot digest Turkey's political line that highlights its own national interests, unlike in the past. This astonishment is a matter of confusion for the U.S. itself - which leads to withdrawal and a cautious approach in relations going beyond the strategic partnership. Let us note that this is a temporary situation.
As the economic aspect of the U.S.'s perspective of Turkey already tells, the U.S. will develop a clearer policy acknowledging the new situation in Europe, the Pacific region, Middle East and Caucasus following the U.S. presidential elections. We have said on every occasion that the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) will not be able to hike interest rates until the elections, and it kept interest rates stable during the September meeting. The Fed's interest rate increase is not an economic move alone, but also a political one, as it means the U.S.'s return to a strategy of overcoming the crisis through wars in Latin America, the Pacific region and Middle East. This is ultimately a problem with monetary policy, which has a political beginning step.
The same goes for Turkey-U.S. relations. Both Erdoğan's meetings with the CEOs of global American companies and other business meetings held by Turkish institutions like the Foreign Economic Relations Board (DEİK) revealed that the foreign business world has an extremely positive perspective of Turkey. As opposed to political circles in the U.S., the business world understands the July 15 coup attempt and fathoms that the attempt also means interference in the economy and affects investments in Turkey. Moreover, some CEOs told us that if the coup attempt had succeeded, it would have meant a return to the old Turkey as opposed to Erdoğan's vision - which would have triggered a new crisis for the global economy.
The U.S. business world is well aware that the great markets of Europe and the Caucasus will reach significance with a strong Turkish economy and that they must be strong in Turkey to have presence in these two markets. Mediterranean energy resources, trade corridors coming from the Pacific region, access to European, African and Caucasian markets, and the control of these markets are possible with Turkey and Turkey's stability. Moreover, Turkey's human capital with a high potential of labor force is even more important in this regard.
Turkey needs to carry out major reforms in education and entirely restructure the university education system. Even without this, global business circles in the U.S. are closely following this high potential. Therefore, they must consider Erdoğan to be the best guarantor of Turkey's stability. The U.S. sorely needs this confidence as the current crisis teaches. So, is what we see in the U.S. different from what renowned Czech writer Franz Kafka saw in the country in the 1920s?
The name of the first book that was published after Kafka's death is "Amerika" where he told his dream of the U.S. although he never went to the country. Indeed, dreams are more realistic than facts, as they tell about the future, as well as the present time. The novel's protagonist Karl looks at the Statue of Liberty while entering the New York port and says how high it is. However, Kafka's marvelous imagination places a sword, instead of a torch, in the hand of the statue. This tells Karl that violence, pressure and poverty prevails in the U.S. under the cloak of freedom. Karl's uncle, who migrates to the U.S. penniless but becomes a dollar-millionaire senator there, does not tell the truth to him as much as the Statue of Liberty does. The feeble porters and firemen under inhumane conditions in ships are the naked truth of the U.S. This truth surfaces during the Great Depression of 1929 after the publication of this novel. Then, the sword in the hand of the Statue of Liberty comes into play. After a short while, World War II breaks out. Since the end of that war in 1944, New York has been the capital of what we call the world order. It is a political capital because of the U.N. headquarters and a financial and economic one because of Wall Street. With all of its symbols, narratives and promises, New York is still a city as Kafka defines it. Today, the whole world, including the U.S. itself, sees that the Statue of Liberty holds a sword that massacres humanity, instead of a torch that enlightens it.
What does all this mean? The world order that was established under the U.S.'s leadership after World War II is faltering at its core, New York. The U.S.'s inflation rises as the Fed targeted. However, unemployment does not fall at the same rate as the inflation rises. In short, the U.S. fails to achieve an inflation level which does not create unemployment - which is called stagflation in technical terms, meaning an economy where the rising unemployment goes head to head with inflation.
I hope the U.S. will not do what Germany did before World War II to overcome the situation. The U.S. should not resolve the rapidly rising inflation and stagnation by fueling the demand based on the increasingly intensifying wars. Based on all this, we have always said the Fed will not be able to increase interest rates until the presidential elections. The interest rate hike and war-based neocon policies will not be a solution even after the elections. However, it seems the U.S.'s presidential candidates do not understand this new situation and the severity of the crisis to come. As such, the significance of leaders like Erdoğan grows further. Let us look to Erdoğan's U.N. speech through this perspective.
Indeed, New York tells many things without having to say or write anything. At least, it reflects Erdoğan's insistent remark that the current course of affairs will entrap the whole of the world if it is not changed.
Here are my observations of New York, where we have been to attend the U.N. General Assembly: The U.S.'s perspective of Turkey certainly has a political and economic (business-trade) aspect. The U.S. seems astonished and it cannot digest Turkey's political line that highlights its own national interests, unlike in the past. This astonishment is a matter of confusion for the U.S. itself - which leads to withdrawal and a cautious approach in relations going beyond the strategic partnership. Let us note that this is a temporary situation.
As the economic aspect of the U.S.'s perspective of Turkey already tells, the U.S. will develop a clearer policy acknowledging the new situation in Europe, the Pacific region, Middle East and Caucasus following the U.S. presidential elections. We have said on every occasion that the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) will not be able to hike interest rates until the elections, and it kept interest rates stable during the September meeting. The Fed's interest rate increase is not an economic move alone, but also a political one, as it means the U.S.'s return to a strategy of overcoming the crisis through wars in Latin America, the Pacific region and Middle East. This is ultimately a problem with monetary policy, which has a political beginning step.
The same goes for Turkey-U.S. relations. Both Erdoğan's meetings with the CEOs of global American companies and other business meetings held by Turkish institutions like the Foreign Economic Relations Board (DEİK) revealed that the foreign business world has an extremely positive perspective of Turkey. As opposed to political circles in the U.S., the business world understands the July 15 coup attempt and fathoms that the attempt also means interference in the economy and affects investments in Turkey. Moreover, some CEOs told us that if the coup attempt had succeeded, it would have meant a return to the old Turkey as opposed to Erdoğan's vision - which would have triggered a new crisis for the global economy.
The U.S. business world is well aware that the great markets of Europe and the Caucasus will reach significance with a strong Turkish economy and that they must be strong in Turkey to have presence in these two markets. Mediterranean energy resources, trade corridors coming from the Pacific region, access to European, African and Caucasian markets, and the control of these markets are possible with Turkey and Turkey's stability. Moreover, Turkey's human capital with a high potential of labor force is even more important in this regard.
Turkey needs to carry out major reforms in education and entirely restructure the university education system. Even without this, global business circles in the U.S. are closely following this high potential. Therefore, they must consider Erdoğan to be the best guarantor of Turkey's stability. The U.S. sorely needs this confidence as the current crisis teaches. So, is what we see in the U.S. different from what renowned Czech writer Franz Kafka saw in the country in the 1920s?
The name of the first book that was published after Kafka's death is "Amerika" where he told his dream of the U.S. although he never went to the country. Indeed, dreams are more realistic than facts, as they tell about the future, as well as the present time. The novel's protagonist Karl looks at the Statue of Liberty while entering the New York port and says how high it is. However, Kafka's marvelous imagination places a sword, instead of a torch, in the hand of the statue. This tells Karl that violence, pressure and poverty prevails in the U.S. under the cloak of freedom. Karl's uncle, who migrates to the U.S. penniless but becomes a dollar-millionaire senator there, does not tell the truth to him as much as the Statue of Liberty does. The feeble porters and firemen under inhumane conditions in ships are the naked truth of the U.S. This truth surfaces during the Great Depression of 1929 after the publication of this novel. Then, the sword in the hand of the Statue of Liberty comes into play. After a short while, World War II breaks out. Since the end of that war in 1944, New York has been the capital of what we call the world order. It is a political capital because of the U.N. headquarters and a financial and economic one because of Wall Street. With all of its symbols, narratives and promises, New York is still a city as Kafka defines it. Today, the whole world, including the U.S. itself, sees that the Statue of Liberty holds a sword that massacres humanity, instead of a torch that enlightens it.
What does all this mean? The world order that was established under the U.S.'s leadership after World War II is faltering at its core, New York. The U.S.'s inflation rises as the Fed targeted. However, unemployment does not fall at the same rate as the inflation rises. In short, the U.S. fails to achieve an inflation level which does not create unemployment - which is called stagflation in technical terms, meaning an economy where the rising unemployment goes head to head with inflation.
I hope the U.S. will not do what Germany did before World War II to overcome the situation. The U.S. should not resolve the rapidly rising inflation and stagnation by fueling the demand based on the increasingly intensifying wars. Based on all this, we have always said the Fed will not be able to increase interest rates until the presidential elections. The interest rate hike and war-based neocon policies will not be a solution even after the elections. However, it seems the U.S.'s presidential candidates do not understand this new situation and the severity of the crisis to come. As such, the significance of leaders like Erdoğan grows further. Let us look to Erdoğan's U.N. speech through this perspective.
Last Update: September 23, 2016 19:39