EU's new path: A concrete, applicable proposal


The year 2017 is a year of elections and uncertainties for the EU. Germany, France and the Netherlands will hold elections this year. It is expected that German Chancellor Angela Merkel will be reelected. However, the ever-mounting unemployment and the immigrant problem are challenging her. On the other hand, the ever-increasing power of the far right in France and the Netherlands is threatening the EU's integrity. Even if the Netherlands' neo-Nazi Party for Freedom cannot come to power, it can achieve a historical majority in Parliament.French National Front party candidate Marine Le Pen, who was not given a chance in the second round, has achieved historic power. Eastern European countries like Poland and Hungary are maintaining a tense stance on Brussels. In other words, the gap between the central and peripheral European countries is increasingly growing. Meanwhile, the U.K. will initiate the formal Brexit process at the end of March. In fact, the U.K. has started formally doing what the far right in countries like France and the Netherlands are doing. This picture indicates that the EU is heading toward a new path. On the one hand, there is central Europe under the threat of neo-Nazism, on the other, there is the peripheral Europe that is expecting an uptick in social indignation due to unemployment and recession.In other words, it seems inevitable that the EU will be reformed as three circles that are increasingly driving apart from each other. The first chamber, which includes central countries like Germany, France and the Netherlands, will continue to use the euro as the common currency. However, it seems impossible for Southern and Eastern Europe to continue using the common currency. This is because, as we have seen in this period, the European Central Bank's (ECB) common monetary policy has not been applied with a common fiscal policy – a problem that brought the EU crisis to the periphery. This is one of the root causes of the lack of a permanent recovery in Southern and Eastern Europe. Meanwhile, the rapid rise of nationalist movements in Central Europe is leading to the reemergence of old fascistic movements in Greece.This is because Greece regards itself as part of Central Europe in historical terms and prefers to be a country where economic recovery is continuously ensured with bailouts and interventions. In this regard, it is not coincidental that the Cyprus talks have become bogged down and Greek Cyprus has brought up its dream of fascistic Enosis. So, this sauciness from the fascistic Greek Cypriots cannot be assessed separately from the rise of neo-Nazis in Germany and France. The silence from the leftist Greek government in the face of fascistic Enosis voices is another source of misery for them. All these developments closely concern Turkey as it does not want an economic crisis in the EU.Turkey runs an $18 billion surplus in its foreign trade with the EU. However, the fact that the euro is treated like the Deutsche mark is intensifying Southern Europe's crisis and countries in this part of Europe cannot achieve economic recovery despite the ECB's expansionary policies. It is useful to be realistic in the face of this picture. Countries like Germany, France and the Netherlands should form a new central union apart from Southern Europe as the U.K. did. Southern and Eastern European countries should act in unison with Turkey and adopt a perspective of a new union and expansion. If a common fiscal policy cannot be achieved within two years, Southern and Eastern Europe should abandon the common currency of the euro and return to their national currencies. Only this way can we overcome the new eurozone crisis that is rapidly approaching.