Will Turkey and the EU work together to overcome the current crisis, with a new one-year road map determined during talks between President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and EU leaders at the NATO summit? First of all, Turkey will observe what the EU will do on three main issues. The first is the attitude of EU countries, especially Germany, regarding harboring and protecting Gülenist Terror Group (FETÖ) members and extraditing them to Turkey. The second is whether the EU will fulfill its promises regarding the refugee crisis and transfer the funds to refugee projects as it promised. And the third is the amendment of the Customs Union agreement. These three issues are of critical importance for Turkey and the reluctance of the EU to implement them means the end of the line for Turkey and the EU. In fact, Erdoğan is not alone in this, as the Turkish public has been convinced to freeze relations with the EU without waiting for the union unless these three issues are settled. Erdoğan is just voicing the wishes of the public here.

Erdoğan responded to a call from the chairman of the Turkish Industrialists' and Businessmen's Association (TÜSİAD), the largest and most active business organization in Turkey, to restore ties with the EU during the association's general assembly meeting earlier last week. Speaking at the same meeting, Erdoğan emphasized that the EU's economic significance for Turkey is undeniable and that Turkey has never had a strategy to end relations with the union. Erdoğan also stated that Turkey has shown the extent of the importance it attaches to the EU membership process by launching the Ministry of EU Affairs, adding that the crisis does not stem from Turkey, but from the EU. Also, Erdoğan underlined that the EU cracks down on Turkey almost in order to end relations over red lines, especially by supporting terror organizations. His statement, "I will not permit playing with the pride of this nation" received a big round of applause from participants. TÜSİAD and its circles have supported Turkey's EU accession process since the beginning. And now, even TÜSİAD has come to justify Erdoğan.

So, what will the stance of the EU on these three basic issues be from now on? The EU leaders seem to have made some promises to Erdoğan at the NATO Brussels summit. It seems that the EU's promised financial support regarding the refugee issue will be given, even just partly, in the near future. Also, the modification of the Customs Union agreement will be addressed and the delegations of both sides will accelerate studies on this subject. However, the EU's and especially Germany's support for FETÖ and PKK terrorist organizations seem to be the greatest problem in Turkey-EU relations at present.

If Germany ends its support for FETÖ, this will also be for the good of its economic interests. If German Chancellor Angela Merkel wants to win the elections, the attitude of the Turkish electorate and Turkey will be important. However, this is just the short-term and a trivial part of the matter. If Germany continues to harbor FETÖ elements and blocks relations with Turkey, this will create major trouble in trade relations after a while.

For the German economy, Turkey is extremely important in terms of market and resource supply. And Turkey is not a country that Germany can easily turn its back on in terms of energy investments and energy supply. For German investors, and especially wind and solar power companies, the Turkish market will be indispensable in the near future in terms of supplying and marketing products. Turkey is also a crucial market for the German automotive industry. I advise Germany to calculate the number of German-made automobiles and vehicles that the Turkish public sector purchases and rents every year and consider their value in euros. By 2030, the EU and German industry will meet a large part of its energy requirements thanks to Turkey via the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC), which will be directly controlled by Turkey and the northern Turkish Stream, which is being jointly built with Russia.

The middle and southern routes of the One Belt One Road (OBOR) project, China's new Silk Road project, will pass through Turkey. In other words, without Turkey, the EU and Germany in particular can neither find energy in a smooth way, nor can markets sell goods from big ports like Hamburg. So, the EU needs Turkey both in energy and finding markets.

On the other hand, but for Turkey, the EU should prepare itself for a large migration wave coming from Turkey. If this wave reaches the EU's door, it will certainly enter it and then the EU's economic and political crisis will escalate into a systemic disaster that will not allow any political movements or leaders to survive. If this comes to pass, the chain of revolutions that Karl Marx predicted for Europe in the years that followed 1848, will break out - making Mark's prediction come true in Europe 169 years later.

If the EU and Germany in particular insist on this reactionary attitude and ignore Turkey's three above-mentioned red lines, we can say that a specter will haunt Europe 169 years later. This time however, it is much more realistic than the one predicted by Marx who foretold what the current EU would be 169 years ago, making him exiled from every part of Europe.