The Great Debate in Turkey


The Republican People's Party (CHP) held its 18th extraordinary congress on Sept. 5-6 to settle a leadership contest between Chairman Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu and Kemalist hardliner Muharrem İnce, who recently resigned as minority whip over ideological differences with the party executives. The vote, which followed a three-week campaign period, resulted in a 740-415 victory for the incumbent – suggesting the race was closer than experts had predicted – and marked the beginning of a third consecutive term for the reformist wing of the Republicans. Although pundits seem hopeful about radical change regarding key issues including the Kurdish peace process and the role of religion in society, the great debate among opposition ranks remains far from over.In an earlier article for this newspaper on March 17, I had posited that the local elections would mean another defeat for the main opposition party and, given the risks that the leadership took at the time, they "might face a serious revolt in their ranks after the local elections." Although the intra-party opposition did not challenge Mr. Kılıçdaroğlu's rule until after the Aug. 10 presidential vote in order to avoid distracting attention away from joint candidate Ekmeleddin İhsanoğlu's campaign, Mr. İnce had publicly expressed his disappointment with the leadership's failure to consult with himself and other senior figures before endorsing an outsider in the historic contest. Indeed, the ideological debate itself goes back to Mr. Kılıçdaroğlu's rise to power on a reform-oriented platform in May 2010, when the party's long-term chairman Deniz Baykal had to resign over accusations of infidelity. Ever since, the "New CHP" agenda has been the target of fierce criticism from the Kemalist majority within the party, who viewed reform efforts as concessions from key ideological principles including Turkish nationalism and secularism.Against the backdrop of ideological strifes within the CHP, Mr. Kılıçdaroğlu's ability to keep his seat represents an important achievement, but assuming that Mr. İnce's defeat will prove adequate to put the great debate to bed would be naive. The crisis of Kemalism dates back to the mid-1980s, when Turkey took initial steps to become an open society under the leadership of the late Turgut Özal, an economic liberal who eventually would serve as the nation's president between 1989 and 1993. Throughout the 1990s, two peripheral forces, the Kurds and the Islamists, attained public visibility and accumulated political power despite challenges from the establishment in the form of assassinations, disappearances and military interventions in civilian politics. While the crisis of Kemalism became aggravated after the AK Party's rise to power in 2002, the decisive moment came in April 2007, when the establishment threatened to overthrow the democratically elected government if the executive branch would insist on nominating then Foreign Minister Abdullah Gül for president. The 2007 parliamentary election not only resulted in a grave defeat for the establishment but created a four-party system that remains intact today. Furthermore, the crisis has had repercussions beyond the CHP's voter base which makes it less likely for developments within the main opposition party alone to settle the ideological dispute.Although Mr. Kılıçdaroğlu's third term will witness a greater reliance by the leadership on disciplinary measures to keep a lid on dissent, the main objective will be to go on the offensive and exploit the leadership change within the AK Party ahead of the 2015 parliamentary elections. The introduction of new faces, most notably Mehmet Bekaroğlu, an Islamist politician with leftist tendencies, certainly suggests that shock-and-awe and star power will take precedence over rebuilding efforts and long-term strategy for the foreseeable future.Ideological strifes, of course, are not the CHP's only challenge: The Republicans face a severe disadvantage in popular elections as an urban-based movement with virtually no presence in the predominantly-Kurdish southeast. Due to the party's deep historical roots, local organizations, staffed with individuals from diverse backgrounds, tend to refuse the party line at times when the leadership seeks rapprochement with the Kurds, religious conservatives and others. Finally, the presidential election has contributed to the rise of the Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) as a serious alternative for hundreds of thousands of left-leaning millenials in Western Turkey.The 2015 parliamentary election represents the ultimate test for the CHP leadership. It is no secret that a large chunk of oppositions have two strikes against Mr. Kılıçdaroğlu, who will have to restore the hope of eventual, if not immediate, victory against the AK Party, which has been one of the most successful governments in the country's history.